AIR Worldwide Releases Updated Earthquake Model for Australia
July 27 2020 - 6:04AM
Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide (AIR) announced the
release of its updated Earthquake Model for Australia. These
updates were prompted by findings in the National Seismic Hazard
Model from Geoscience Australia (GA), which challenged established
conceptions of Australia’s seismic hazard and generally decreased
the view of seismic hazard significantly. AIR’s updated fully
stochastic, event-based earthquake model serves to capture the
effects of earthquake-induced ground shaking and liquefaction on
risks located in continental Australia and the island of Tasmania.
AIR Worldwide is a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.
“This model has been developed to meet the wide spectrum of
earthquake risk management needs of the insurance industry and we
took a careful and thoughtful approach in order to deliver this
update,” said Dr. Jayanta Guin, executive vice president and chief
research officer, AIR Worldwide.
The AIR model has incorporated the changes from the updated
National Seismic Hazard Model, but this new release of the model
also includes many other significant enhancements. Since Australia
is characterized by low seismic hazard and high levels of
uncertainty in our understanding of risk, having a robust
historical catalog is critical for this model. AIR has
independently developed a historical catalog that incorporates GA’s
2018 historical catalog as well as additional events from global
sources, which has expanded the length of the catalog to the end of
2018. To accomplish this, AIR scientists developed a method to
convert Australia’s local magnitude (ML) to the more widely used
moment magnitude (Mw) scale to create a catalog that has been
homogenized to a consistent Mw scale.
The model’s fault database has been updated based on GA’s
updated 2018 fault model and expanded to 391 faults, including a
recent fault discovered as a result of the 2018 Lake Muir
Earthquake. The latest ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs)
are included to better capture the epistemic uncertainty inherent
in estimating ground motions in tectonically stable regions.
Updated Site Soil Classification Maps offer higher resolution
amplification modeling along the coastal areas where the majority
of the population resides. The vulnerability framework now uses
intensity-based damage functions and has been expanded to include
explicit support for new risk types including marine hull, marine
cargo, and builder’s risk.
“The updated model’s revised view of the seismic hazard and
updated vulnerability functions provide a better match to
historical losses. These updates allow for AIR to continue to
provide a comprehensive and scientifically credible earthquake
model for Australia,” noted Dr. Guin.
As a supplement to this model, AIR is releasing nine Extreme
Disaster Scenarios (EDS). EDS’ are meant to provide clients with
additional scenarios in light of the uncertainty, to assist in
stress testing and assessing the impact of large loss events. While
they represent low probability—and in some cases very low
probability—scenarios, they are nevertheless scientifically
plausible.
The AIR Earthquake Model for Australia is available in the 2020
releases of Touchstone® and Touchstone Re catastrophe risk
management systems.
About AIR WorldwideAIR Worldwide (AIR) provides
risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and
society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide
founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk
from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty
catastrophes, and cyber incidents. Insurance, reinsurance,
financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced
science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk
management, insurance-linked securities, longevity modeling,
site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk
management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is
headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America,
Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit
www.air-worldwide.com. For more information about Verisk, a leading
data analytics provider serving customers in insurance, energy and
specialized markets, and financial services, please
visit www.verisk.com
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For more information, contact:Kevin LongAIR
Worldwide+1-617-267-6645klong@air-worldwide.com
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