By Heather Somerville
Elon Musk defied the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic to
help Tesla Inc. deliver a wildly successful year. For 2021, the
chief executive is setting expectations even higher and has the
long-haul trucking industry in his sights.
Having demonstrated that consumers will enthusiastically buy
electric cars, Mr. Musk now wants to show the trucking industry --
a risk-averse and thin-margin business with little patience for
Silicon-Valley hype -- will embrace a battery-powered vehicle.
The Tesla semitrailer truck is part of a flurry of
vehicle-production activity Mr. Musk has planned for 2021. Those
plans include a new electric pickup truck, factories in Berlin and
Texas starting up, and higher output at the company's Shanghai
plant. Tesla is aiming to produce at least 68% more vehicles across
its inventory next year, Mr. Musk has suggested, from the 500,000
car deliveries the company targets in 2020.
Investors have a lot riding on Tesla's new projects going
smoothly. The company's stock has more than quintupled since the
start of the year, buoyed by five sequential quarterly profits that
put it on track for its first-ever full-year in the black. The
stock trades at more than 16 times annual sales, far more than its
peer auto makers, and is poised to be added to the S&P 500
index in December.
The Semi, to be built at Tesla's Austin, Texas, factory, and due
to customers starting next year, will be a new challenge for the
Silicon Valley electric-car maker. It will test how far Tesla has
come with battery improvements it teased in September, how far it
can push its manufacturing capabilities and whether the company can
break into a new industry where Mr. Musk's star power has less pull
among buyers primarily concerned about price and practicality.
"In general there is still fairly deep skepticism in the
trucking industry of whether the technology actually works," said
Morgan Stanley transportation analyst Ravi Shanker.
Controversy around electric-truck company Nikola Corp. may also
raise questions about the nascent industry. The company is under
investigation by the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange
Commission after a short seller accused it of overstating the
development of its technology.
When Tesla unveiled the Semi in 2017, it promised the truck
would be in customer hands in 2019 and selling 100,000 trucks a
year starting in 2022. Mr. Musk touted the product with his
characteristic enthusiasm, saying on Twitter: "This will blow your
mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension."
Yet the Semi features around five times more battery cells than
Tesla's passenger cars, which Mr. Musk has said constrained his
progress on the trucks. Some observers say such delays are evidence
of Mr. Musk's tendency to overpromise and under deliver. In the
past, Mr. Musk has denied that he sets unrealistic goals.
The Semi project is run by Jerome Guillen, a longtime
transportation executive who joined Tesla in 2010. Tesla, Mr.
Guillen and Mr. Musk didn't respond to requests for comment.
The two-year delay works in Tesla's favor, to an extent.
Electric vehicles have gained popularity as companies contend with
new regulations and financial incentives to limit their emissions,
and consumer pressure to reduce their carbon footprint.
"You are going to see fleet owners testing the waters," said
Alan Amici, vice president and chief technology officer of
transportation solutions at TE Connectivity Ltd., a technology
company that supplies the auto industry and others.
Around 50 large shippers, carriers and retailers have reserved
Tesla semis, based on statements from the companies and media
reports, including Walmart Inc., United Parcel Service Inc.,
PepsiCo Inc and Anheuser-Busch InBev SA. Most of the orders
represent a fraction of their respective fleets.
President-elect Joe Biden, a supporter of clean energy, said he
plans to encourage electric vehicle adoption and toughen
fuel-economy regulations. In September, California Gov. Gavin
Newsom ordered that, "where feasible," heavy-duty vehicles
operating in the state must be zero-emission by 2045.
"Any truck going out of the ports of Long Beach or L.A. will
have a gun to its head that it has to move over to cleaner energy,"
said Jeff Osborne, an equity analyst at Cowen & Co.
Truck demand is up amid a surge in e-commerce orders amid the
coronavirus pandemic. To satisfy their immediate needs, companies
have been buying up diesel-powered trucks, with North American
sales in October up 83% over last year, according to freight
transportation research firm FTR. The purchases mean some fleet
owners will put off truck renewals another five to 10 years, so
Tesla may have to wait for a shot at winning that business.
Truckers also are driving their cabs farther, logging on average
about 20% more miles weekly in November than in April, according to
data from trucking technology startup KeepTruckin. Tesla has yet to
prove the Semi can handle 500-mile hauling with rough weather or
steep terrain. Diesel trucks typically can go about 1,600 miles
before refueling and can top-up at stations at every major freeway
exit. Battery charging stations are still sparse.
Tesla is putting Semi prototypes through its paces by moving its
cars between the battery factory in Nevada and its plant in
Fremont, Calif., using the 260-mile trip as part test run and part
public relations exercise.
Tesla says its trucks will sell for $150,000 to $200,000, a
price that analysts say looks more realistic since the company in
September unveiled advancements that would bring the cost of
batteries down by 56% and boost energy capacity to increase driving
range by 54%.
Yet at $150,000, a Tesla Semi costs around 25% more than the
average diesel truck. The difference could be at least partly
offset by government credits. Tesla says the trucks will provide
more than $200,000 in gas savings over a truck's lifetime and
fleets will recoup their investment in two years.
Cowen's Mr. Osborne expects closer to a three-year payback,
based on certain assumptions about the cost of maintenance and
electricity. Companies that buy the trucks likely will also need to
factor in the cost of building charging stations.
Uncertainties around the Semi didn't deter Pride Group
Enterprises, a trucking and logistics company based in Toronto and
Dallas, from ordering 150. The company plans to build charging
stations on property it owns in Canada and the U.S.
"Carbon footprint was definitely one of the top reasons we chose
to make this decision," said Aman Johal, vice president of
operations. "We are moving freight for large food and beverage
companies and all of those customers have internal sustainability
goals they have to make," he said, forecasting a broader industry
shift "into the new world of electric trucks."
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Write to Heather Somerville at Heather.Somerville@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 28, 2020 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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