TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Average New Car Transaction Price to Reach $35,521, up 2.0% Year Over Year for January 2020
February 03 2020 - 9:00AM
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for
determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects average
transaction prices (ATP) to be up 2.0%, or $688, from a year ago
and down 1.6%, or $564, from December 2019.
“In 2019, we saw sustained growth in average transaction price
and despite a slight dip in sales for this month, we still expect
an increase in January average transaction price year over year as
consumers continue to opt for utilities and feature-rich vehicles,”
said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of
TrueCar.
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Nissan and Volkswagen are expected to be down on ATP
year-over-year, 1.6% and 8.3%, respectively. Meanwhile BMW is
expected to be up 3.8%.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to be up on ATP, up 11.1% and 7.9%,
respectively, as their broadened utilities portfolios continue to
increase consumer demand.
- Incentive spend as a percentage of ATP for the industry is
expected to be 10.3%, down 3.2% from a year ago and down 11.3% from
December 2019.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will
reach more than $39 billion for January 2020, down 1.0% (based on
an adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 29.4% from
last month.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker
brand health, the majority of mainstream and luxury brands are
expected to be down this month from a year ago, indicating that
while manufacturers are being more disciplined, sales fell further
than expected based on the decrease in incentive spend from a year
ago.
- Jeep thrived this month as one of the few mainstream brands
showing an increase in RHI. This is likely due to incentives being
down and the iconic Jeep Wrangler continuing to resonate with
consumers.
“Jeep is maintaining a strong Retail Health Index as we kick-off
the new year,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity
Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “FCA is strategically idling
plants, while adjusting production to match demand. This should
help them maintain a strong Retail Health Index in the future.”
January forecast for the 12 largest manufacturers by
volume: For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jan 2020Forecast |
Jan 2019 Actual |
Dec 2019 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$ |
57,770 |
$ |
55,629 |
$ |
56,484 |
3.8 |
% |
2.3 |
% |
Daimler |
$ |
62,263 |
$ |
62,371 |
$ |
59,360 |
-0.2 |
% |
4.9 |
% |
FCA |
$ |
37,113 |
$ |
36,164 |
$ |
37,642 |
2.6 |
% |
-1.4 |
% |
Ford |
$ |
41,155 |
$ |
39,099 |
$ |
41,084 |
5.3 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
GM |
$ |
37,473 |
$ |
37,084 |
$ |
37,764 |
1.0 |
% |
-0.8 |
% |
Honda |
$ |
28,155 |
$ |
28,394 |
$ |
28,562 |
-0.8 |
% |
-1.4 |
% |
Hyundai |
$ |
26,213 |
$ |
23,590 |
$ |
25,625 |
11.1 |
% |
2.3 |
% |
Kia |
$ |
24,476 |
$ |
22,686 |
$ |
24,505 |
7.9 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
Nissan |
$ |
27,201 |
$ |
27,635 |
$ |
28,119 |
-1.6 |
% |
-3.3 |
% |
Subaru |
$ |
29,950 |
$ |
29,248 |
$ |
30,247 |
2.4 |
% |
-1.0 |
% |
Toyota |
$ |
32,788 |
$ |
32,344 |
$ |
33,661 |
1.4 |
% |
-2.6 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$ |
44,635 |
$ |
48,694 |
$ |
45,912 |
-8.3 |
% |
-2.8 |
% |
Industry |
$ |
35,521 |
$ |
34,833 |
$ |
36,086 |
2.0 |
% |
-1.6 |
% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Jan 2020 Forecast |
Jan 2019 Actual |
Dec 2019 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$ |
5,419 |
$ |
5,274 |
$ |
5,958 |
2.7 |
% |
-9.1 |
% |
Daimler |
$ |
5,408 |
$ |
6,253 |
$ |
6,699 |
-13.5 |
% |
-19.3 |
% |
FCA |
$ |
4,581 |
$ |
4,607 |
$ |
5,165 |
-0.6 |
% |
-11.3 |
% |
Ford |
$ |
4,542 |
$ |
4,456 |
$ |
5,005 |
1.9 |
% |
-9.2 |
% |
GM |
$ |
4,957 |
$ |
5,075 |
$ |
5,202 |
-2.3 |
% |
-4.7 |
% |
Honda |
$ |
2,113 |
$ |
2,146 |
$ |
2,613 |
-1.5 |
% |
-19.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
$ |
2,745 |
$ |
2,878 |
$ |
2,993 |
-4.6 |
% |
-8.3 |
% |
Kia |
$ |
3,543 |
$ |
3,389 |
$ |
3,755 |
4.5 |
% |
-5.7 |
% |
Nissan |
$ |
4,058 |
$ |
4,216 |
$ |
4,690 |
-3.7 |
% |
-13.5 |
% |
Subaru |
$ |
1,017 |
$ |
1,065 |
$ |
1,193 |
-4.5 |
% |
-14.8 |
% |
Toyota |
$ |
2,472 |
$ |
2,338 |
$ |
2,826 |
5.7 |
% |
-12.5 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$ |
4,004 |
$ |
3,885 |
$ |
5,322 |
3.1 |
% |
-24.8 |
% |
Industry |
$ |
3,674 |
$ |
3,721 |
$ |
4,207 |
-1.3 |
% |
-12.7 |
% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jan 2020 Forecast |
Jan 2019Actual |
Dec 2019Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
9.4 |
% |
9.5 |
% |
10.5 |
% |
-1.1 |
% |
-11.1 |
% |
Daimler |
8.7 |
% |
10.0 |
% |
11.3 |
% |
-13.4 |
% |
-23.0 |
% |
FCA |
12.3 |
% |
12.7 |
% |
13.7 |
% |
-3.1 |
% |
-10.1 |
% |
Ford |
11.0 |
% |
11.4 |
% |
12.2 |
% |
-3.2 |
% |
-9.4 |
% |
GM |
13.2 |
% |
13.7 |
% |
13.8 |
% |
-3.3 |
% |
-4.0 |
% |
Honda |
7.5 |
% |
7.6 |
% |
9.1 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
-18.0 |
% |
Hyundai |
10.5 |
% |
12.2 |
% |
11.7 |
% |
-14.2 |
% |
-10.4 |
% |
Kia |
14.5 |
% |
14.9 |
% |
15.3 |
% |
-3.1 |
% |
-5.5 |
% |
Nissan |
14.9 |
% |
15.3 |
% |
16.7 |
% |
-2.2 |
% |
-10.5 |
% |
Subaru |
3.4 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
-6.8 |
% |
-13.9 |
% |
Toyota |
7.5 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
8.4 |
% |
4.3 |
% |
-10.2 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
9.0 |
% |
8.0 |
% |
11.6 |
% |
12.4 |
% |
-22.6 |
% |
Industry |
10.3 |
% |
10.7 |
% |
11.7 |
% |
-3.2 |
% |
-11.3 |
% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Mainstream |
|
|
Jan 2020 Forecast |
YOYChange |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-1.4 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
Chevrolet |
-0.6 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
Chrysler |
-0.3 |
% |
0.9 |
% |
Dodge |
0.3 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
Fiat |
1.8 |
% |
-3.4 |
% |
Ford |
0.6 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
GMC |
-2.5 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
Honda |
-0.5 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
-0.3 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
Jeep |
3.1 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
Kia |
1.7 |
% |
-0.4 |
% |
Mazda |
-0.5 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
MINI |
1.1 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Mitsubishi |
4.0 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Nissan |
-0.3 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Ram |
-1.5 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
Subaru |
0.6 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Toyota |
1.2 |
% |
-1.0 |
% |
Volkswagen |
2.6 |
% |
-0.3 |
% |
Luxury |
|
|
Jan 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-4.2 |
% |
-0.3 |
% |
Alfa Romeo |
0.5 |
% |
-1.1 |
% |
Audi |
-4.6 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
BMW |
2.6 |
% |
-0.9 |
% |
Cadillac |
-0.8 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Genesis |
-3.4 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
INFINITI |
-3.5 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
Jaguar |
-1.9 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Land Rover |
-2.8 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Lexus |
-2.2 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Lincoln |
2.0 |
% |
0.9 |
% |
Maserati |
-3.2 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
Mercedes-Benz |
1.6 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Porsche |
0.0 |
% |
-0.5 |
% |
Volvo |
-1.5 |
% |
0.6 |
% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar is a leading
automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect
to our network of 16,500 Certified Dealers. We are building the
industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as
we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers
who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery
tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all
with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are
ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local
Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency
and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience.
As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying
programs for over 250 leading brands, including USAA, Sam’s Club,
and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact: Shadee
Malekafzalipr@truecar.comshadee@truecar.com
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024