TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Remain Steady, Down Slightly for January 2020
January 28 2020 - 9:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,099,510 units in
January 2020, down 2.9% from a year ago. This month’s seasonally
adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an
estimated 16.5 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects
U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 887,729
units, a decrease of 0.8% from a year ago.
“January is typically a slower month for vehicle
sales, but traditional economic indicators such as income growth,
unemployment rates and stock market are healthy and positive,” said
Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.
“A steady economy and high consumer confidence are contributing to
steady sales this month with only a slight year-over-year
decline.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Among mainstream brands, Kia and Hyundai are expected to
kickoff 2020 on a high note with a strong sales month for both
brands. Kia is up 10% and Hyundai is up 15% respectively
year-over-year for total sales.
- In terms of new car shoppers, Kia and Hyundai were the fastest
growing brands on the TrueCar platform in Q4 2019. Kia saw a 70%
lift in visitor share and Hyundai saw a 37% lift in visitor
share.
- BMW’s momentum continues as they compete for the luxury sales
crown going into 2020. This month, the German automaker is expected
to be up 11.9% year-over-year in total sales and up 11% on retail
sales with incentives up by 2.7%.
- Ford and Nissan are forecasted to be down 11.4% and 24.0%,
respectively, in total unit sales compared to a year ago.
- Ford's decline is primarily driven by fleet which is expected
to be down 24%.
- Nissan has dipped in sales largely due to declining sales from
both its mainstream Nissan brand as well as its Infiniti luxury
brand. A 40.2% year-over-year decline in fleet sales also
contributed to the decline in sales.
- Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,674,
down 3.0% or $47 dollars year-over-year, and down 12.7% or $532
from December 2019.
- The most notable year-over-year declines in incentive spend are
expected from Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai and Subaru. Meanwhile Toyota,
Kia and Volkswagen are expected to have the biggest incentive
increases.
- Used vehicle sales for January 2020 are expected to reach
3,329,070, up 6% from a year ago and up 12% from December
2019.
“Hyundai has shown strong performance in the last 18 months,”
said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics
at TrueCar. “They’ve introduced new products and broadened their
utility portfolio. As a result, we’ve seen an increase in
consideration and more consumers cross-shopping Hyundai on the
TrueCar platform.”
January 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers
by volume: For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Jan 2020 Forecast |
Jan 2019 Actual |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
23,123 |
20,660 |
11.9% |
Daimler |
23,663 |
23,804 |
-0.6% |
FCA |
130,546 |
136,082 |
-4.1% |
Ford |
152,106 |
171,763 |
-11.4% |
GM |
187,501 |
184,780 |
1.5% |
Honda |
102,221 |
106,139 |
-3.7% |
Hyundai |
48,327 |
42,020 |
15.0% |
Kia |
41,294 |
37,376 |
10.5% |
Nissan |
76,607 |
100,741 |
-24.0% |
Subaru |
45,102 |
46,072 |
-2.1% |
Tesla |
21,054 |
18,500 |
13.8% |
Toyota |
155,984 |
156,021 |
0.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
43,445 |
43,162 |
0.7% |
Industry |
1,099,510 |
1,132,911 |
-2.9% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Jan 2020 Forecast |
Jan 2019 Actual |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
21,684 |
19,532 |
11.0% |
Daimler |
21,518 |
21,896 |
-1.7% |
FCA |
97,422 |
106,322 |
-8.4% |
Ford |
103,785 |
108,128 |
-4.0% |
GM |
136,055 |
140,762 |
-3.3% |
Honda |
99,568 |
105,475 |
-5.6% |
Hyundai |
37,099 |
26,155 |
41.8% |
Kia |
35,568 |
29,099 |
22.2% |
Nissan |
58,395 |
70,295 |
-16.9% |
Subaru |
42,594 |
42,899 |
-0.7% |
Tesla |
21,054 |
18,500 |
13.8% |
Toyota |
131,330 |
127,331 |
3.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
39,064 |
38,154 |
2.4% |
Industry |
887,729 |
894,844 |
-0.8% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the companies’ operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
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