TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Average New Car Transaction Price to Reach $35,932 up 2.4% Year Over Year for December 2019
January 03 2020 - 9:00AM
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for
determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects average
transaction prices (ATP) to be up 2.4% or $836 from a year ago and
up 0.5% or $174 from November 2019.
“Average new vehicle transaction price has increased in every
single month of 2019 when compared with the same period a year
ago,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of
TrueCar. “Consumers have continually opted for higher priced
vehicles, including trucks and utilities, but also for luxury. In
this year’s slightly decreasing automotive market, we’re seeing
luxury sales declining at a slower pace than mainstream sales.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Honda and Nissan are the only automakers expected to be down on
ATP year over year, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. Meanwhile BMW is
expected to be up 5.6%.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to be up on ATP, up 10.7% and 7.7%
respectively as their all-new SUV products continue to resonate
with consumers.
- The ratio of incentive spend to ATP for the industry is
expected to be 11%, up 1.2% from a year ago and down 5% from
November 2019.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will
reach nearly $56 billion for December 2019, up 2.5% (based on an
adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 11.4% from last
month.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker
brand health, most luxury brands are expected to be down this
month, indicating high incentive spend absent a gain in retail
market share.
- Lincoln bucked the trend and stood out in RHI as one of the few
luxury brands to raise incentives while gaining retail share. This
is likely due to their increased SUV lineup with the new or
refreshed 2020 models; Aviator, Corsair and Nautilus.
- For mainstream brands, Honda is expected to have a strong
showing this month, leveraging incentives in select segments where
they don’t have new products to give themselves a competitive
edge.
“With the rebrand of their model names mostly settled, Lincoln
is sitting back and enjoying a positive moment in the spotlight at
the top of ALG’s Retail Health Index,” said Eric Lyman, Chief
Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “An expanded SUV
product line-up in the sweet-spot of luxury has given Lincoln a
modest sales bump while allowing for incentive spend discipline,
even during the year-end holiday rush.”
“Lincoln is starting to show that de-coupling performance from
luxury can be a winning strategy,” added Lyman. “With its 3rd-row
capability, the all-new Lincoln Aviator has seen the
fastest-growing share of demand of any vehicle in its segment on
the TrueCar platform in 2019.”
December 2019 forecast for the 12 largest manufacturers
by volume: For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Dec 2019 Forecast |
Dec 2018 Actual |
Nov 2019 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$57,083 |
$54,081 |
$56,094 |
5.6 |
% |
1.8 |
% |
Daimler |
$60,672 |
$60,217 |
$62,935 |
0.8 |
% |
-3.6 |
% |
FCA |
$37,756 |
$36,476 |
$37,127 |
3.5 |
% |
1.7 |
% |
Ford |
$41,054 |
$40,059 |
$40,423 |
2.5 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
GM |
$38,073 |
$37,868 |
$38,016 |
0.5 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Honda |
$28,496 |
$28,894 |
$28,299 |
-1.4 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Hyundai |
$25,380 |
$22,929 |
$25,080 |
10.7 |
% |
1.2 |
% |
Kia |
$24,584 |
$22,835 |
$24,696 |
7.7 |
% |
-0.5 |
% |
Nissan |
$28,145 |
$28,619 |
$27,935 |
-1.7 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
Subaru |
$30,300 |
$29,511 |
$30,105 |
2.7 |
% |
0.6 |
% |
Toyota |
$33,633 |
$32,872 |
$33,105 |
2.3 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$42,622 |
$42,064 |
$43,601 |
1.3 |
% |
-2.2 |
% |
Industry |
$35,932 |
$35,096 |
$35,758 |
2.4 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Dec 2019 Forecast |
Dec 2018 Actual |
Nov 2019 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$6,024 |
$5,323 |
$5,900 |
13.2 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
Daimler |
$6,258 |
$6,252 |
$6,699 |
0.1 |
% |
-6.6 |
% |
FCA |
$5,033 |
$4,684 |
$5,026 |
7.5 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Ford |
$4,665 |
$4,479 |
$5,003 |
4.2 |
% |
-6.8 |
% |
GM |
$4,817 |
$5,056 |
$5,196 |
-4.7 |
% |
-7.3 |
% |
Honda |
$2,369 |
$2,184 |
$2,578 |
8.5 |
% |
-8.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
$2,796 |
$2,798 |
$3,001 |
-0.1 |
% |
-6.8 |
% |
Kia |
$3,425 |
$3,389 |
$3,755 |
1.1 |
% |
-8.8 |
% |
Nissan |
$4,414 |
$4,301 |
$4,658 |
2.6 |
% |
-5.2 |
% |
Subaru |
$1,153 |
$1,065 |
$1,193 |
8.3 |
% |
-3.3 |
% |
Toyota |
$2,811 |
$2,468 |
$2,737 |
13.9 |
% |
2.7 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$4,523 |
$4,074 |
$4,910 |
11.0 |
% |
-7.9 |
% |
Industry |
$3,944 |
$3,806 |
$4,132 |
3.6 |
% |
-4.5 |
% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Dec 2019 Forecast |
Dec 2018 Actual |
Nov 2019 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
10.6 |
% |
9.8 |
% |
10.5 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
0.3 |
% |
Daimler |
10.3 |
% |
10.4 |
% |
10.6 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
-3.1 |
% |
FCA |
13.3 |
% |
12.8 |
% |
13.5 |
% |
3.8 |
% |
-1.5 |
% |
Ford |
11.4 |
% |
11.2 |
% |
12.4 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
-8.2 |
% |
GM |
12.7 |
% |
13.4 |
% |
13.7 |
% |
-5.2 |
% |
-7.4 |
% |
Honda |
8.3 |
% |
7.6 |
% |
9.1 |
% |
10.0 |
% |
-8.8 |
% |
Hyundai |
11.0 |
% |
12.2 |
% |
12.0 |
% |
-9.7 |
% |
-7.9 |
% |
Kia |
13.9 |
% |
14.8 |
% |
15.2 |
% |
-6.1 |
% |
-8.4 |
% |
Nissan |
15.7 |
% |
15.0 |
% |
16.7 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
-5.9 |
% |
Subaru |
3.8 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
4.0 |
% |
5.5 |
% |
-3.9 |
% |
Toyota |
8.4 |
% |
7.5 |
% |
8.3 |
% |
11.3 |
% |
1.1 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
10.6 |
% |
9.7 |
% |
11.3 |
% |
9.6 |
% |
-5.8 |
% |
Industry |
11.0 |
% |
10.8 |
% |
11.6 |
% |
1.2 |
% |
-5.0 |
% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Mainstream |
|
|
Dec 2019 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-3.8 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Chevrolet |
-2.2 |
% |
-1.2 |
% |
Chrysler |
-0.8 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
Dodge |
2.0 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Fiat |
7.4 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
Ford |
-1.2 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
GMC |
-1.8 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Honda |
0.3 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
2.6 |
% |
0.3 |
% |
Jeep |
0.5 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Kia |
2.9 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Mazda |
0.2 |
% |
-0.2 |
% |
MINI |
1.4 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Mitsubishi |
2.4 |
% |
0.6 |
% |
Nissan |
-0.3 |
% |
0.9 |
% |
Ram |
-2.3 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
Subaru |
0.4 |
% |
0.9 |
% |
Toyota |
1.3 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Volkswagen |
2.9 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
Luxury |
|
|
Nov 2019 |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.1 |
% |
-0.4 |
% |
Alfa Romeo |
0.6 |
% |
-1.0 |
% |
Audi |
-2.9 |
% |
-0.9 |
% |
BMW |
1.2 |
% |
0.6 |
% |
Cadillac |
-1.2 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
Genesis |
-5.3 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
INFINITI |
-2.1 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Jaguar |
-1.1 |
% |
0.3 |
% |
Land Rover |
-1.6 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
Lexus |
-0.1 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
Lincoln |
1.0 |
% |
-0.2 |
% |
Maserati |
-1.7 |
% |
-0.5 |
% |
Mercedes-Benz |
0.2 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Porsche |
0.5 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Volvo |
-2.5 |
% |
-0.5 |
% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
pr@truecar.com
shadee@truecar.com
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024