TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Average New Car Transaction Price to Reach $35,623 up 1.3% Year Over Year for November 2019
December 03 2019 - 9:00AM
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for
determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects average
transaction prices (ATP) to be up 1.3% or $460 from a year ago and
up 0.4% or $152 from October 2019.
“Not only are consumers preferring SUVs which are typically more
expensive than their sedan counterparts, but they’re also choosing
not to skimp on in-vehicle features and content, a positive
indicator of consumer confidence in the economy,” said Oliver
Strauss, Chief Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.
“Automaker revenue is coming in strong as well, up 2.2%
year-over-year, another signal that the automotive industry remains
healthy.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Notably FCA is expected to be up 3.8% on ATP year-over-year,
driven largely by sales from their all-new Jeep Gladiator
truck.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to be up on ATP, up 10% and 8.8%
respectively on the heels of their own all-new SUV products, the
Hyundai Palisade and the Kia Telluride.
- For luxury, it’s a similar story, with BMW up 4.8% on ATP
driven by sales of their all-new X7 SUV.
- Meanwhile, Honda and Volkswagen are down 2.4% and 2.2%
respectively on ATP, likely due to a consumer mix shift toward less
expensive products. Nissan is also expected to be down 2.7% due to
weakening retail demand and an aging portfolio.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will
reach nearly $50 billion for November 2019, up 2.2% or $1 billion
from a year ago and up 4.6% from last month.
- The ratio of incentive spend to ATP for the industry is
expected to be 10.6%, down 0.2% from a year ago and down 3.9% from
October 2019.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker
brand health, most luxury brands are expected to be down this
month, however BMW is expected to be up with another strong showing
due to strong demand and lower incentive spend.
- Acura is expected to be down most notably this month in RHI for
luxury brands due to flat retail sales and higher incentive
spend—up 14% year-over-year to help their aging MDX and RDX
best-sellers compete.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to lead the mainstream pack in RHI,
while Volkswagen also had a strong month, expected to be up 2.8% in
retail sales and down 3% on incentive spend.
“In ALG’s Retail Health Index, Hyundai and Kia have shown
enduring brand health this year bolstered by their dual SUV
products,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a
subsidiary of TrueCar. “Volkswagen is a bit of a surprise given
they don’t have new products to compete with all the shiny new
models out there, which is a testament to the overall strength of
their lineup and the brand equity they have built that is
sustaining them through their current lifecycles.”
November 2019 forecast for the 12 largest manufacturers
by volume: For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Nov 2019 |
Nov 2018 |
Oct 2019 |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$56,131 |
$53,536 |
$56,131 |
4.8% |
0.0% |
Daimler |
$64,003 |
$64,047 |
$59,974 |
-0.1% |
6.7% |
FCA |
$37,199 |
$35,843 |
$36,474 |
3.8% |
2.0% |
Ford |
$40,160 |
$38,914 |
$39,959 |
3.2% |
0.5% |
GM |
$38,209 |
$38,393 |
$39,304 |
-0.5% |
-2.8% |
Honda |
$28,259 |
$28,939 |
$28,342 |
-2.4% |
-0.3% |
Hyundai |
$24,817 |
$22,571 |
$24,913 |
10.0% |
-0.4% |
Kia |
$24,720 |
$22,727 |
$24,494 |
8.8% |
0.9% |
Nissan |
$27,459 |
$28,207 |
$27,851 |
-2.7% |
-1.4% |
Subaru |
$30,024 |
$29,363 |
$29,905 |
2.3% |
0.4% |
Toyota |
$33,060 |
$32,668 |
$32,997 |
1.2% |
0.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
$43,101 |
$44,051 |
$43,893 |
-2.2% |
-1.8% |
Industry |
$35,623 |
$35,163 |
$35,471 |
1.3% |
0.4% |
Incentives
Manufacturer |
Nov 2019 |
Nov 2018 |
Oct 2019 |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$5,101 |
$5,447 |
$4,859 |
-6.3% |
5.0% |
Daimler |
$6,004 |
$6,542 |
$5,925 |
-8.2% |
1.3% |
FCA |
$4,642 |
$4,381 |
$4,789 |
6.0% |
-3.1% |
Ford |
$4,353 |
$4,387 |
$4,745 |
-0.8% |
-8.3% |
GM |
$4,713 |
$4,586 |
$5,102 |
2.8% |
-7.6% |
Honda |
$2,232 |
$2,041 |
$2,278 |
9.4% |
-2.0% |
Hyundai |
$2,584 |
$2,532 |
$2,751 |
2.1% |
-6.1% |
Kia |
$3,549 |
$3,359 |
$3,522 |
5.7% |
0.8% |
Nissan |
$4,324 |
$4,574 |
$4,479 |
-5.5% |
-3.5% |
Subaru |
$1,225 |
$1,146 |
$1,205 |
6.9% |
1.6% |
Toyota |
$2,597 |
$2,572 |
$2,589 |
1.0% |
0.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,923 |
$4,044 |
$4,203 |
-3.0% |
-6.7% |
Industry |
$3,759 |
$3,716 |
$3,896 |
1.2% |
-3.5% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Nov 2019 |
Nov 2018 |
Oct 2019 |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
9.1% |
10.2% |
8.7% |
-10.7% |
5.0% |
Daimler |
9.4% |
10.2% |
9.9% |
-8.2% |
-5.1% |
FCA |
12.5% |
12.2% |
13.1% |
2.1% |
-5.0% |
Ford |
10.8% |
11.3% |
11.9% |
-3.9% |
-8.7% |
GM |
12.3% |
11.9% |
13.0% |
3.3% |
-5.0% |
Honda |
7.9% |
7.1% |
8.0% |
12.0% |
-1.7% |
Hyundai |
10.4% |
11.2% |
11.0% |
-7.2% |
-5.7% |
Kia |
14.4% |
14.8% |
14.4% |
-2.9% |
-0.2% |
Nissan |
15.7% |
16.2% |
16.1% |
-2.9% |
-2.1% |
Subaru |
4.1% |
3.9% |
4.0% |
4.5% |
1.2% |
Toyota |
7.9% |
7.9% |
7.8% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
9.1% |
9.2% |
9.6% |
-0.8% |
-4.9% |
Industry |
10.6% |
10.6% |
11.0% |
-0.2% |
-3.9% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Mainstream |
|
|
Nov 2019 |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-3.8% |
0.0% |
Chevrolet |
-2.2% |
-1.2% |
Chrysler |
-0.8% |
0.5% |
Dodge |
2.0% |
0.1% |
Fiat |
7.4% |
1.0% |
Ford |
-1.2% |
-0.1% |
GMC |
-1.8% |
0.7% |
Honda |
0.3% |
0.1% |
Hyundai |
2.6% |
0.3% |
Jeep |
0.5% |
0.0% |
Kia |
2.9% |
0.2% |
Mazda |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
MINI |
1.4% |
0.1% |
Mitsubishi |
2.4% |
0.6% |
Nissan |
-0.3% |
0.9% |
Ram |
-2.3% |
1.0% |
Subaru |
0.4% |
0.9% |
Toyota |
1.3% |
0.0% |
Volkswagen |
2.9% |
-0.7% |
Luxury |
|
|
Nov 2019 |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.1% |
-0.4% |
Alfa Romeo |
0.6% |
-1.0% |
Audi |
-2.9% |
-0.9% |
BMW |
1.2% |
0.6% |
Cadillac |
-1.2% |
0.5% |
Genesis |
-5.3% |
0.2% |
INFINITI |
-2.1% |
0.0% |
Jaguar |
-1.1% |
0.3% |
Land Rover |
-1.6% |
0.8% |
Lexus |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
Lincoln |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
Maserati |
-1.7% |
-0.5% |
Mercedes-Benz |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Porsche |
0.5% |
0.0% |
Volvo |
-2.5% |
-0.5% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
pr@truecar.com
shadee@truecar.com
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Mar 2024 to Apr 2024
TrueCar (NASDAQ:TRUE)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2023 to Apr 2024