New Car Auto Sales Expected to be Down for July While SAAR Continues to Fluctuate in 2019
July 26 2019 - 09:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,385,568 units in
July, down 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million
units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of
new cars and light trucks to be 1,185,092 units, a decrease of 5.2%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Despite buoyant market fundamentals, auto sales are being
pulled back by lower incentives,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief
Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “SAAR however has
fluctuated in 2019 more than in previous years, pointing to some
uncertainty about the remainder of the year.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted
by ALG)
- Despite industry sales being down year-over-year, Hyundai had a
strong month, up 6.2%. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate that
Hyundai is increasingly winning over new car buyers who are
cross-shopping other brands, particularly buyers who are also
considering Toyota and Subaru models.
- Tesla continued its sales ascent, up 67.5% year-over-year
driven by Model 3 sales.
- Automaker average incentive spend will reach $3,671, down 2.6%
or $97 dollars year-over-year, and down 4% or $151 from June 2019.
The most notable declines in incentive spend will come from Kia,
down 17.8%, Toyota, down 9.3%, and Subaru, down 9.1%
year-over-year. Meanwhile Honda raised incentives by 4.2% and BMW
by 3.4%.
- Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up
2.7% or $897 year-over-year.
- Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are
expected to be 10.8%, down 5.1% from a year ago and down 2.8% from
June 2019.
- Volkswagen and Mercedes stood out this month in ALG’s brand
strength metric for mainstream and luxury brands respectively,
largely driven by new or redesigned product. Volkswagen’s Tiguan
received a major refresh for 2019 and the Atlas was added as a new
model to the Volkswagen line-up. Mercedes was buoyed by the all-new
GLE SUV and its new entry level, A-Class Sedan.
- Used vehicle sales for July are expected to reach 3,331,762
down 0.8% year-over-year and flat from June 2019.
“With a tightening of consumer demand and automaker incentives,
savvy car buyers are likely holding out in anticipation of better
deals or widening their consideration set to get the most value,”
said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of
TrueCar. “Hyundai has been a prime example of this trend, they’ve
been able to capture sales in a declining sales environment by
attracting shoppers from other brands.”
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes
in retail market share relative to
changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge
whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
ALG's Retail Health Index -
Mainstreamhttps://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/8922b8b0-9d43-404e-860b-77a3b3bc9071
ALG's Retail Health Index -
Luxuryhttps://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/0163580d-b68d-405a-9607-ec7265c8bcb8
July 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as July 2018.
Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
July 2019 |
July 2018 |
YoY %Change |
BMW |
27,667 |
26,410 |
0.6% |
Daimler |
24,417 |
23,058 |
1.7% |
FCA |
169,540 |
170,970 |
-4.8% |
Ford |
188,532 |
192,743 |
-6.1% |
GM |
229,755 |
221,437 |
-0.4% |
Honda |
141,147 |
138,602 |
-2.2% |
Hyundai |
57,231 |
51,752 |
6.2% |
Kia |
57,227 |
53,112 |
3.4% |
Nissan |
101,426 |
108,792 |
-10.5% |
Subaru |
60,302 |
59,426 |
-2.6% |
Tesla |
16,222 |
9,300 |
67.5% |
Toyota |
203,495 |
208,770 |
-6.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
56,175 |
54,070 |
-0.3% |
Industry |
1,385,568 |
1,370,405 |
-2.9% |
Incentive Spending (Per Unit)
Manufacturer |
July 2019 |
July
2018 |
YOY
%Change |
BMW |
$5,981 |
$5,783 |
3.4% |
Daimler |
$5,388 |
$5,267 |
2.3% |
FCA |
$4,679 |
$4,458 |
4.9% |
Ford |
$4,528 |
$4,629 |
-2.2% |
GM |
$5,058 |
$4,948 |
2.2% |
Honda |
$2,017 |
$1,935 |
4.2% |
Hyundai |
$2,716 |
$2,946 |
-7.8% |
Kia |
$3,543 |
$4,313 |
-17.8% |
Nissan |
$3,904 |
$4,068 |
-4.0% |
Subaru |
$1,473 |
$1,621 |
-9.1% |
Toyota |
$2,388 |
$2,633 |
-9.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,562 |
$3,839 |
-7.2% |
Industry |
$3,671 |
$3,768 |
-2.6% |
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
July 2019 |
July 2018 |
June 2019 |
YOY %change |
MOM %change |
BMW |
$54,679 |
$51,391 |
$55,542 |
6.4% |
-1.6% |
Daimler |
$57,411 |
$55,794 |
$58,809 |
2.9% |
-2.4% |
FCA |
$36,310 |
$34,558 |
$36,125 |
5.1% |
0.5% |
Ford |
$38,125 |
$36,800 |
$37,715 |
3.6% |
1.1% |
GM |
$37,122 |
$36,553 |
$37,806 |
1.6% |
-1.8% |
Honda |
$28,056 |
$28,264 |
$28,085 |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
Hyundai |
$24,409 |
$22,020 |
$23,004 |
10.8% |
6.1% |
Kia |
$23,698 |
$22,551 |
$24,123 |
5.1% |
-1.8% |
Nissan |
$26,881 |
$26,931 |
$27,095 |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
Subaru |
$29,153 |
$28,551 |
$29,180 |
2.1% |
-0.1% |
Toyota |
$32,274 |
$31,825 |
$32,588 |
1.4% |
-1.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
$40,562 |
$39,895 |
$42,524 |
1.7% |
-4.6% |
Industry |
$34,043 |
$33,146 |
$34,441 |
2.7% |
-1.2% |
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com
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