At June 2019 Year Midpoint TrueCar’s ALG Maintains 17M Annual SAAR New Car Sales Forecast
June 26 2019 - 9:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,487,407 units in
June, down 0.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17 million
units for the month, and is expected to remain at 17M SAAR for
2019. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of
new cars and light trucks to be 1,203,565 units, a decrease of 6.3%
from a year ago.
For the second quarter of 2019, ALG expects new vehicle sales
will reach 4,409,295 units, down slightly, at 2%, from a year ago
when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Increased incentive spending by several automakers in June in
tandem with sustained strength in the underlying macro-economic
indicators is helping drive resilient sales for both the month and
quarter,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a
subsidiary of TrueCar. “Given these factors, we are holding our
initial forecast of 17M SAAR for 2019 made in January.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted
by ALG)Month:
- Automaker average incentive spend will reach $3,747, down 1% or
$37 dollars year-over-year, and up 0.4% or $16 from May 2019.
However, several automakers increased incentive spend
year-over-year in June, most notably Honda and Toyota, up 12.3% or
$226 and 3.5% or $80 respectively.
- Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up
3.1% or $1,014 year-over-year
- Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are
expected to be 11%, down 3.9% from a year ago and up 0.6% from May
2019.
- Kia is expected to continue to score high amongst mainstream
competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail
Health Index (RHI). This is driven largely by the Kia Telluride
helping drive Kia retail sales up 8.3% year-over-year. On the
TrueCar platform, recent trends show the newly launched Telluride
advanced to the second most visited new midsize SUV and 10th most
visited new vehicle overall. The Telluride also became the most
popular midsize SUV and 8th most popular vehicle overall that
consumers elected to connect with TrueCar Certified Dealers to
receive upfront pricing on vehicles in their inventory.*
- Lincoln stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as
well with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is
due to the continued success of the Lincoln Navigator and Nautilus
SUV models.
- Used vehicle sales for June are expected to reach 3,215,742
down 4.2% year-over-year and down 5.8% from May 2019.
Quarter:
- Tesla, Subaru and Honda are each expected to gain 0.5
percentage points in retail market share in Q2 2019 compared to the
same period last year. This is believed to be driven by Model 3 and
Ascent performance for Tesla and Subaru, and a boost in incentive
spend for Honda.
- ALG expects used vehicle sales for Q2 2019 to reach 9,944,173
units, down 2.4% year-over-year.
- Incentive spending by automakers is expected to reach $3,629 in
Q2 2019, down 2.5% compared to the same period last year.
“New SUV product continues to be king in June,” said Eric Lyman,
Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Kia’s Telluride,
along with Lincoln’s Navigator and Nautilus are resonating with
consumers, helping those brands move metal and increase market
share this month without raising incentives.”
“For the second quarter, new car performance continues to be
strong from a historical perspective. We’re seeing a combination of
exciting product and savvy incentive strategy propelling Tesla,
Subaru and Honda respectively in gaining retail market share,”
added Lyman.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes
in retail market share relative to
changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge
whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
June 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as June 2018.
Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
June 2019 |
June 2018 |
YoY %Change |
BMW |
32,103 |
33,790 |
-1.3% |
Daimler |
28,283 |
29,125 |
0.8% |
FCA |
202,466 |
202,264 |
3.9% |
Ford |
204,086 |
229,537 |
-7.7% |
GM |
252,738 |
256,609 |
2.3% |
Honda |
142,968 |
146,563 |
1.3% |
Hyundai |
63,539 |
64,052 |
3.0% |
Kia |
58,964 |
56,571 |
8.2% |
Nissan |
125,147 |
145,096 |
-10.4% |
Subaru |
58,395 |
59,841 |
1.3% |
Tesla |
12,250 |
8,200 |
55.1% |
Toyota |
202,760 |
209,602 |
0.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
50,977 |
53,670 |
-1.4% |
Industry |
1,487,407 |
1,553,317 |
-0.6% |
Incentive Spending (Per Unit)
Manufacturer |
June 2019 |
June
2018 |
YOY
%Change |
BMW |
$5,688 |
$5,557 |
2.3% |
Daimler |
$5,990 |
$6,464 |
-7.3% |
FCA |
$4,562 |
$4,503 |
1.3% |
Ford |
$4,435 |
$4,444 |
-0.2% |
GM |
$5,040 |
$5,196 |
-3.0% |
Honda |
$2,059 |
$1,833 |
12.3% |
Hyundai |
$2,973 |
$2,899 |
2.6% |
Kia |
$3,835 |
$3,928 |
-2.4% |
Nissan |
$4,043 |
$4,041 |
0.0% |
Subaru |
$1,537 |
$1,505 |
2.1% |
Toyota |
$2,346 |
$2,266 |
3.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,708 |
$3,927 |
-5.6% |
Industry |
$3,747 |
$3,785 |
-1.0% |
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
June 2019 |
June 2018 |
May 2019 |
YOY %change |
MOM %change |
BMW |
$55,374 |
$51,446 |
$56,279 |
7.6% |
-1.6% |
Daimler |
$59,231 |
$57,450 |
$58,681 |
3.1% |
0.9% |
FCA |
$36,270 |
$34,722 |
$36,341 |
4.5% |
-0.2% |
Ford |
$37,369 |
$36,388 |
$37,616 |
2.7% |
-0.7% |
GM |
$37,629 |
$36,474 |
$37,561 |
3.2% |
0.2% |
Honda |
$27,948 |
$27,969 |
$27,978 |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Hyundai |
$23,038 |
$22,055 |
$23,510 |
4.5% |
-2.0% |
Kia |
$24,089 |
$22,583 |
$23,841 |
6.7% |
1.0% |
Nissan |
$27,415 |
$27,181 |
$27,647 |
0.9% |
-0.8% |
Subaru |
$28,950 |
$27,881 |
$29,054 |
3.8% |
-0.4% |
Toyota |
$32,456 |
$31,843 |
$32,377 |
1.9% |
0.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
$37,240 |
$35,482 |
$37,306 |
5.0% |
-0.2% |
Industry |
$34,036 |
$33,022 |
$34,111 |
3.1% |
-0.2% |
Q2 2019 Forecast for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume:
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Q2 2019 |
Q2 2018 |
Q1 2019 |
YoY % |
BMW |
88,633 |
92,145 |
83,175 |
-3.8% |
Daimler |
84,047 |
89,427 |
78,878 |
-6.0% |
FCA |
594,068 |
600,707 |
498,425 |
-1.1% |
Ford |
629,893 |
674,920 |
586,956 |
-6.7% |
GM |
747,872 |
757,620 |
665,005 |
-1.3% |
Honda |
414,275 |
425,333 |
369,787 |
-2.6% |
Hyundai |
188,998 |
186,171 |
151,787 |
1.5% |
Kia |
170,411 |
166,618 |
136,596 |
2.3% |
Nissan |
352,828 |
364,692 |
365,851 |
-3.3% |
Subaru |
179,655 |
173,157 |
156,754 |
3.8% |
Tesla |
34,150 |
19,000 |
46,900 |
79.7% |
Toyota |
608,800 |
617,271 |
543,716 |
-1.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
162,711 |
163,285 |
150,184 |
-0.4% |
Industry |
4,409,295 |
4,500,262 |
4,006,667 |
-2.0% |
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
*Unique TrueCar platform new car search visitors for the period
June 17-23, 2019
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
Photos accompanying this announcement are available at
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https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/0b985079-86fd-40ca-ba3a-a0bfaf1da6f0
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
Shadee@truecar.com
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