MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany Ifo Business Climate Index; UK Retail Sales; Italy
Consumer/Business Confidence Surveys, Foreign Trade non-EU; EU
Summit concludes; updates from Clariant, Carnival, Steinhoff,
Tesco
Opening Call:
Modest gains are likely for European shares after Jerome
Powell's day-two testimony, as investors continued to evaluate the
path of U.S. interest rates. In Asia, shares made solid gains;
Treasury yields edged higher; the dollar dipped; oil was mixed; and
gold extended its retreat.
Equities:
European and U.S. stock futures were firmer early Friday as
investors continued to consider Jerome Powell's second day of
Congressional testimony.
Wall Street advanced on Thursday after Powell--speaking about
monetary policy with the House Financial Services Committee--didn't
mention anything that made markets more concerned. He repeated that
he didn't think a recession was inevitable, but said he had an
"unconditional" commitment to fight inflation.
"It's a clear signal that the Fed doesn't have the market's back
anymore, " said Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's global
market strategist, of Powell's testimony. "I think the Fed is
unbothered of slowing growth if it causes a shallow recession."
With that, Saglimbene expects it to be a tough summer for
stocks, with little reason for investors to turn bullish until
there's more clarity on where U.S. inflation is headed and also on
what's "the Fed's stopping point for rate hikes," he said.
Given the jittery backdrop, it was difficult to pinpoint an
exact driver of gains. "Dip buyers, bottom pickers, quarter-end
rebalancing, rotation out of commodities into stocks. Pick your
favorite," said Mohannad Aama, a portfolio manager at Beam Capital
Management.
Economic Insight:
Inflation rates have hit records around the world, limiting the
purchasing power of consumers and adding to the uncertainty of a
volatile marketplace.
On the bright side, the U.S. core consumer price index is
trending down and lowered demand for consumer goods is reducing
prices, both of which look to ease inflation in the coming months,
UBS Global Wealth Management said in its mid-year outlook.
However, shifting consumer patterns are creating increased
pressure on core service prices and uncertainty in the labor market
could keep overall inflation elevated for longer.
---
A shortage of workers in the developed world could be about to
soften, said Capital Economics.
"In the U.S., although participation of older workers remains
depressed, an improvement is underway in the participation rate of
prime-aged workers. In the U.K., a rise in inactivity due to
long-term sick is a key factor [but] the experience after the
global financial crisis points to at least some of this rise being
reversed."
Capital Economics, which also expects improvement in the euro
zone, said a potential return of labor supply might help tame
inflation, but not quickly enough to lower the peak in interest
rates.
Forex:
The dollar edged lower in Asia on improving risk sentiment
driven by gains in regional equity markets and U.S. stock
futures.
IG said risk appetite may attempt to recover on some
resilience... but caution still mostly lingers heading into the
weekend break and looking toward key U.S. inflation data due next
week.
Bank of America said that going into the second half of the
year, dollar-positive dynamics remain in place, where elevated
inflation remains perversely positive for currencies as a result of
pushing central banks into higher rates.
"Consequently, increasingly aggressive Fed rate hikes have
helped USD strength. But with the ECB now likely to belatedly start
hiking rates in the second half of the year, we remain focused on
1.05 for our EUR-USD forecast for the rest of 2022, and in general
for the USD to stay on the stronger side near-term."
Bonds:
Treasury yields rose in Asia, having declined for a second day
on Thursday, though they remained close to their highest levels in
more than a decade.
The increasingly aggressive Fed--and moves by other major
central banks--have stirred fears that policy tightening could push
the U.S. economy into recession.
Energy:
Crude futures were mixed in Asia, with Brent lower but WTI
holding early gains, as recession fears continued to rise.
Oil appears to be continuing its recent downward tick, with the
WTI down more than 10% in the past week, said OCBC. Near-term
market focus will likely be on upcoming U.S. inflation data.
"The next important test for the oil bears is the $100 level.
Many investors don't expect a downturn in prices below this level,
pointing at a tight global supply, and resilient demand," said
Swissquote Bank.
Metals:
Gold prices were lower, stretching losses into a fifth straight
session.
Choppy trade may be in store for the precious metal said
Commerzbank. "Market participants appear to be changing their minds
almost hourly about whether gold is a safe haven at present."
---
Fitch said base metals are likely to "extend losses following
their recent falls caused principally by the Fed's tightening and
China's economic slowdown on the back of the country's zero-Covid
policy."
It said a "stronger dollar and weaker global economic growth
will cause a significant drop in demand across base metals." That
said, supply-side concerns should mean prices won't fall back to
their prepandemic levels.
In Asian trading, metals were mixed with copper steadying after
its recent slump, while aluminum extended its retreat, with
one-month losses at 15%.
---
Chinese iron-ore futures were buoyed by President Xi Jinping's
repeated commitment on growth. Xi said China remained committed to
achieve its 5.5% GDP growth target for this year and reiterated
other social and economic development aims.
ANZ said it was the first time such economic targets have been
highlighted since the Politburo meeting in April, sending a signal
which is likely to support sentiment.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Japan Inflation Reaches 2.5% in May
TOKYO-Japan's inflation hit 2.5% in May due mainly to higher
energy prices, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for two
straight months.
Overall consumer prices rose 2.5% in May from a year earlier,
government data showed Friday. The result followed a 2.5% increase
in April, which marked the fastest rise since 1991 excluding the
impact of sales-tax increases.
Jerome Powell Pressed Over How Fed Would Respond to Economic
Slowdown
Lawmakers pressed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over
how the central bank would manage trade-offs it could confront if
its interest-rate increases slow the economy sharply but don't
reduce inflation quickly.
Mr. Powell on Thursday said that in such a scenario, the central
bank would be reluctant to shift from raising rates to cutting them
until it saw clear evidence that inflation was coming down in a
convincing fashion.
Fed Stress Test Finds Big Banks Can Weather Severe Recession
The Federal Reserve gave the biggest U.S. banks a clean bill of
health in its annual stress test, saying they would be able to
continue lending to households and businesses even in a severe
recession.
This year's stress test measured the 34 biggest banks' ability
to maintain strong capital levels in a hypothetical recession
marked by sharply higher unemployment and a steep decline in stock
prices.
Energy Secretary Urges Oil Companies to Address High Gasoline
Prices
Biden administration officials struck a more conciliatory tone
with oil-company executives in a meeting Thursday to discuss
potential responses to record-high gasoline prices.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm pressed executives from Exxon
Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell PLC, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and
other major oil companies and refiners for their solutions on how
to boost fuel supplies. But officials didn't criticize those
executives for profiteering, as President Biden has done in recent
days, participants said, leading to more constructive discussions
in a meeting that lasted about an hour.
U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls to Record Low in June
Confidence among British households deteriorated again in June,
setting a record low for the second consecutive month and adding to
concerns of a pullback in consumer spending amid sluggish economic
growth.
The consumer-confidence barometer compiled by research firm GfK
declined to minus 41 in June from minus 40 in May, the lowest level
since the survey began in 1974, missing economists' expectations of
a slight increase to minus 38.
U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls to Record Low in June
Confidence among British households deteriorated again in June,
setting a record low for the second consecutive month and adding to
concerns of a pullback in consumer spending amid sluggish economic
growth.
The consumer-confidence barometer compiled by research firm GfK
declined to minus 41 in June from minus 40 in May, the lowest level
since the survey began in 1974, missing economists' expectations of
a slight increase to minus 38.
Russia's Welcome at Brics Summit Shows Disconnect With West
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday was welcomed at a
virtual summit with the presidents of China, India, Brazil and
South Africa in a stark reminder of the limits of U.S.-led efforts
to ostracize Moscow.
The Brics nation summit, hosted virtually by Chinese President
Xi Jinping, gave Mr. Putin his most high-profile international
stage in the four months since his forces invaded neighboring
Ukraine, and he used it to denounce economic sanctions and call for
unity between developing economies, a call echoed by Mr. Xi.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Friday
04:30/NED: 1Q GDP - 2nd estimate
06:00/UK: May UK monthly retail sales figures
06:00/NOR: May Credit Indicator C2
07:00/CZE: Jun Business cycle survey (consumer/business
confidence)
07:00/SPN: 1Q Final GDP
08:00/GER: Jun Ifo Business Climate Index
08:00/POL: May Unemployment
08:00/ITA: Jun Consumer Confidence Survey
08:00/ITA: Jun Business Confidence Survey
09:00/ITA: May Foreign Trade non-EU
09:00/LUX: Apr Trade
13:00/BEL: Jun Business Confidence Survey
15:59/UKR: 1Q Unemployment
16:59/SPN: 1Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2022 00:37 ET (04:37 GMT)
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