Sefton – October Official California output numbers revision ( down natch)

PUBLISHED: Dec 17 2012 @ 05:12 | Comments (2) | More info about Tom Winnifrith

At last the DOGGR website from the State of California has published the official October output numbers from AIM listed penny dreadful oil producer Sefton Resources (LSE:SER). And guess what? The number is lower that the company itself was saying in an RNS issued 12 days ago. Hey ho. Happy Christmas chairman JimBob Ellerton when are you going to issue a profits (or lack of them) warning?

As at 5^th December Sefton said output was 115 bopd. Well it was actually 3,478 barrels which is 112.19 bopd. Fine who cares about 3 bopd?

The point is that when publishing its first half numbers Sefton blathered on about how steamflooding, water injection, the tooth fairy kissing its pumps etc would boost second half output. Well the capex has been undertaken. The cash went out for that. But while first half output averaged 120 bopd, the October number is the highest DOGGR confirmed second half monthly output. Sefton is claiming 119 bopd for November but we await the normal DOGGR revision on that one. For the four DOGGR audited months the average output is now 107 bopd.

You can see the DOGGR data here

The key point is that there is not a cat in hell’s chance of second half output being higher than first half output. It is going to be materially lower. As such Jimbob and his PR gopher Doctor Doolittle need to ‘fess up now and issue a (lack of) profits warning.

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And that impacts on cash (or lack of it). The question is how much does Sefton have left. It raised £475,000 the other day from an equity drawdown facility but that is just 6 weeks cashburn. So my analysis of when D-day falls is not much changed.

You can read that here.

For what it is worth I checked with my charting pal Zak Mir and he says the fact that the shares have today fallen on an intraday basis beneath 1p is material. The shares have now bounced back to 1p. But according to Zak whereas 1p was formerly support it is now resistance. What was the floor is now the ceiling.

My fundamentals based target remains 0.1p.

Tom Winnifrith is a minor speaker at the UKInvestor Show on April 13^th. Headline speakers include investment legends Nigel Wray, Evil Knievil, Nick Leslau and gold guru Dominic Frisby all of whom really can be said to be a true master investor. Also on the main stage is UKIP leader Nigel Farage MEP. For a full list of the 16 big name speakers booked in so far or to secure your free ticket click here

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