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The Office for National Statistics stated that the UK grew by a healthy 0.5%, defying all Brexit fears. Despite the positive data, investors are not convinced it tells the whole story, as it only showed the initial impact of Brexit, and the majority of investors seem to think the UK will struggle to avoid a downturn when Article 50 is invoked in the first quarter of 2017.
UK GDP printed at 0.5%, versus an expected 0.3%. While the important service sector increased by 0.8%, output decreased in the main industrial groups, with construction decreasing by 1.4%, agriculture by 0.7% and production by 0.4%. In light of the positive reading, the Bank of England might put on hold further emergency stimulus as the better than expected growth figure means a reduced probability the MPC will vote to slash interest rates this year.
Data recap
To wrap up yesterday’s data, headline US durable goods orders declined slightly in September by 0.1%, initial jobless claims declined 3k last week to 258k, and pending home sales increased +1.5% against an expected +1.0. Meanwhile, there was no change in the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey index, at +6.
Today looks set to be another big day for data, with the main focus on Q3 GDP released in the US this afternoon at 1.30pm. The consensus is currently 2.5%. The expectation for this data is huge, as this has come ahead of the last FED meeting for this year. A stronger GDP figure has the chance to convince the FED to hike interest rates before Christmas.
This morning French GDP numbers showed that France returned to growth, although at a slow pace. French GDP expanded by 0.2% in the third quarter of this year and Spanish GDP figures are also out, showing Spain growing at 0.7%, despite political deadlock. Later this morning we will also receive inflation figures in Europe, where the numbers for France, Spain and Germany are scheduled later this morning.
