By Eric Morath
WASHINGTON -- Strong hiring and low unemployment are delivering
U.S. workers their best pay raises in nearly a decade.
Employers shook off a September slowdown to add 250,000 jobs to
their payrolls in October, above monthly averages in recent years,
the Labor Department said Friday. With unemployment holding at
3.7%, a 49-year low, and employers competing for scarce workers,
wages increased 3.1% from a year earlier, the biggest
year-over-year gain for average hourly earnings since 2009.
"It's a huge milestone," Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank
of the West, said of the wage gain. "We've finally gotten
unemployment low enough that we're actually getting some traction
on wages and salaries. And it looks like we're pulling more people
into the labor force as wages rise."
The share of Americans in their prime working years, between 25
and 54, who are working or looking for work rose to the highest
rate since 2010 last month, at 82.3%.
President Trump touted the figures in a tweet Friday, just days
before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress.
"Wages UP! These are incredible numbers," Mr. Trump said.
Employers have added to their payrolls for a record 97 straight
months.
Republicans have a robust economy and job market to support
their case to retain the House and Senate, though the labor market
and broader economy haven't strongly swayed voters in midterm
elections in the past.
The president noted October's jobs gain came "despite the
hurricanes." The Labor Department said Hurricane Michael, which
struck Florida last month, "had no discernible effect" on the
latest figures. Sometimes hurricanes lead to temporary layoffs and
then a bounce in hiring in industries such as construction. Some
economists noted Friday that Hurricane Florence, which struck the
Carolinas in September, may have moved some hiring from that month
to October. September was the worst month for employment gains in a
year.
Friday's report showed average hourly earnings for all
private-sector workers increased 5 cents last month to $27.30.
October marked the first time since the recession ended more than
nine years ago that the closely watched pay gauge rose better than
3% from a year earlier. Wages are rising solidly ahead of the rate
of inflation, which is running near 2%.
With relatively few unemployed Americans looking for work,
employers are being forced to bid up wages to poach workers or
retain the ones they have. That has been happening for
higher-skilled workers such as engineers and welders. It is also
occurring for relatively lower-skilled jobs such as warehouse
workers and home-care aides.
Low-skilled workers are among the biggest beneficiaries of a
strong labor market. Weekly wages for high-school dropouts have
risen 23.4% since 2010, outpacing wage growth for college
graduates, which has been 14.4% since 2010, not adjusted for
inflation.
Amazon.com Inc. this week began paying its lowest-earning
employees $15 an hour. Other large employers, including Walmart
Inc. and Starbucks Corp., have announced similar broad pay
increases in recent years.
Jeffery Sanford Jr. is among the workers seeing his pay increase
at a faster rate. Four years ago, the Baltimore resident and Army
veteran said he was working two near-minimum-wage jobs at
restaurants and sleeping in a homeless shelter.
He pursued training to become a security guard and in 2015
landed a $12.60-an-hour job. The 32-year-old has since been
promoted several times by his employer, Allied Universal, including
to site manager, and to his current role working to win new
contracts for the company. He said he earns $21.60 an hour and is
hoping to land a higher-paying salaried position soon.
"Things are changing for me," Mr. Sanford said. "I know what
kind of work it takes to earn more money, and it's really paying
off."
The strength of hiring in October came as a surprise.
Forecasters projected 188,000 jobs would be added last month. Many
analysts have been expecting hiring to slow as workers become
scarcer.
Employment gains were widespread, including large increases for
manufacturing and construction. Manufacturing payrolls, for
example, expanded 32,000 in October, the biggest monthly increase
this year.
Economists at Nomura Securities said that hiring in cyclical,
goods-producing industries was "consistent with an economy
benefiting from substantial fiscal stimulus." Congress last
December cut individual and corporate tax rates and in February
agreed to boost government spending.
"Moving into 2019," Nomura said, "we continue to expect hiring
activity to slow as fiscal stimulus wanes."
A hiring slowdown wouldn't necessarily mean unemployment will
rise. The Federal Reserve expects unemployment to tick down to 3.6%
next year and hold at the level into 2020.
For now a strong labor market likely keeps the Fed on track to
gradually lift its benchmark interest rate. The Fed raised its
federal-funds rate in September to a range between 2% and 2.25%,
and most officials signaled they expected to lift rates by another
percentage point through next year, with the next move in
December.
Better wage growth could give businesses some leeway to raise
prices, but workers' paychecks should continue to grow above the
rate of inflation, said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes
North America.
Wages for nonsupervisors have risen in the past year at a
stronger rate than for managers. And weekly wages are increasing at
a faster rate because Americans worked more hours last month.
"These are really muscular wage numbers," which should translate
into more consumption, Mr. North said.
Wage gains are still soft compared with other periods of
similarly low unemployment. In the early 2000s and late 1960s,
wages for nonsupervisors, for which more years of data are
available, were growing at a 4%-or-better annual pace.
That, in part, reflects that inflation was higher in those
periods, but also that worker productivity was growing more
rapidly. While productivity has perked up some in the past six
months, gains in output per worker have been weak during most of
the current expansion.
If individual workers don't produce more, it is difficult for
employers to justify pay increases that exceed price increases.
That could reflect that firms this decade have often opted to add
more workers rather than invest in productivity-improving
technology.
Kinestral Technologies Inc., which engineers and manufactures
windows that use technology to produce adjustable levels of tint,
is hiring. The Hayward, Calif., firm added about six people to its
U.S. staff of just more than 100. The firm expects to add about 50
more jobs in the next year.
Finding those workers could be a challenge, said Chief Executive
S.B. Cha.
"The market is very tight for good people," he said, and wages
are rising rapidly, especially in Silicon Valley. As a hedge
against that, Kinestral moved its software-development team to Salt
Lake City a few years ago. Mr. Cha said wages there are lower and
growing more slowly than in California.
"In Silicon Valley, you have to pay whatever Apple and Google
want to pay," he said. "Salt Lake City is becoming more
competitive, but people there are looking for a good culture and
tend to stay with you longer."
Write to Eric Morath at eric.morath@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 02, 2018 16:24 ET (20:24 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.