Treasurys Tick Higher as Stocks Fall
October 18 2018 - 12:28PM
Dow Jones News
By Sam Goldfarb
U.S. government bond prices reversed early declines Thursday,
gaining strength as selling accelerated in the stock market.
In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury
note was 3.171%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 3.178%
Wednesday.
Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have been climbing
this week after slipping last week when U.S. stocks suffered their
worst declines since March.
While stocks staged a sharp rally Tuesday, they fell Wednesday
and were down again Thursday, providing a favorable environment for
Treasurys, which investors often turn to as relatively safe
investments when risks are rising elsewhere.
Still, investors have been selling stocks partly in response to
the recent push higher in Treasury yields, which could yet have
enough momentum to withstand the blowback of volatility, analysts
and traders say.
"Generally speaking, people are expecting higher yields going
forward, so the market is going to have to find a spot where new
money comes in and buys it," said Daniel Mulholland, head of U.S.
Treasury trading at Crédit Agricole.
After closing at a seven-year high of 3.227% on Oct. 5, the
10-year yield dropped to 3.131% a week ago before rising again.
Investors and analysts have identified a variety of reasons why
Treasury yields have been climbing in recent months, ranging from
increased currency hedging costs for foreign buyers to the
expanding supply of bonds needed to fund a growing federal budget
deficit.
Most, though, agree the selling has been underpinned by the
continued strength of the U.S. economy, which has heightened the
risk of rising inflation and made it more likely that the Federal
Reserve will keep nudging up short-term interest rates.
Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 25-26 meeting released Wednesday
showed "a number" of officials believed they would need to raise
the federal-funds rate higher than their long-run target of
2.75%-3% "to reduce the risk of a sustained overshooting" of
inflation or "significant financial imbalances."
Overall, it seems the Fed is moving "full steam ahead" with
rate-increases every quarter "until something breaks," said Tom
Graff, who manages bond portfolios at Brown Advisory.
Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 18, 2018 12:13 ET (16:13 GMT)
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