Markets Rally on Hopes That ECB Will Delay Tapering -- Third Update
June 07 2017 - 8:17AM
Dow Jones News
By Jon Sindreu
Stock markets rallied Wednesday and the euro fell on the
prospect that the European Central Bank will leave monetary policy
loose for longer than expected.
The Stoxx Europe 600 built on earlier gains and rose 0.5% after
media reports that the ECB will lower its inflation forecast for
2019. This was a signal for investors that officials will strike a
dovish tone in their long-awaited policy decision Thursday, with
anticipation of continued central bank support typically pressuring
the euro while pushing investors into riskier investments like
equity.
The euro rose 0.6% against the U.S. dollar, as yields on German
ten year government bonds dropped to 0.245% from 0.254% the day
before. Futures for the S&P 500 pointed to a flat opening for
the U.S. index.
European banks, which are one of the region's riskier
investments, were up 1.1%. This was despite a 1.6% drop in Banco
Santander SA's stock after it announced the takeover of Spanish
rival Banco Popular Español SA, which the ECB had deemed "likely to
fail" earlier Wednesday.
Meanwhile, some of the market's preferred safe-havens gave up
part of their weekly gains. Gold was down 0.4% on the day, after
1.7% run up in the first two days of the week. Yields on 10-year
U.S. government debt recovered slightly, after closing overnight at
their lowest level since Nov. 10. Yields move opposite to
prices.
The week began with investors shedding risk and heading to safe
havens as they waited for a series of scheduled events that have
the potential to create big moves in global markets. Beyond the
ECB's announcement, former U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation
director James Comey will provide testimony in Washington on
Thursday over allegations that Russian hackers interfered in last
year's election. The testimony could be a distraction for President
Donald Trump as he tries to gain Congressional support for his tax
and fiscal stimulus programs. Early results for the U.K. general
election will start coming in that day, with the latest polls
suggesting a tighter race than originally anticipated.
"What we have seen is some of that reflation trade and optimism
come out of the market," said James Ilsley, fund manager at J.P.
Morgan Asset Management. "We've seen some of those bond proxy, more
defensive areas, outperform, but as the economic data improves
you'd expect that to change."
Many analysts now believe recent increases in inflation are
mostly the result of higher oil prices, rather than stronger
consumer demand, and such effects could start to fade soon. Last
week, official figures showed eurozone inflation falling to 1.4% in
May, after coming close to the ECB's target of close but below 2%
for several months.
Oil prices have appeared range bound between $45 and $55 a
barrel since the start of the year. On Wednesday, Brent crude, the
international oil benchmark, lost 0.86% to trade at $49.68.
"It's less about the rallying into safety havens and more about
toning down interest rate expectations," said Zhiwei Ren, fund
manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. "I don't think inflation
can surprise on the upside at this point."
Investors had long marked June's ECB meeting in their calendars
as the date when officials could hint at the possibility of tighter
monetary policy, so the prospect of ECB President Mario Draghi
delivering a dovish speech is a boost for stocks, bonds and the
single currency.
He "would have to be very outspoken, vehemently rejecting a
change of the forward guidance for the market to lower the market's
rate expectations and for the euro's upside momentum to be slowed,"
said Antje Praefcke, analyst at German lender Commerzbank AG.
In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei Stock Average and Australia's
S&P/ASX 200 both closed flat, while Korea's Kospi lost 0.4%.
The Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.2%.
Ese Erheriene contributed to this article.
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 07, 2017 08:02 ET (12:02 GMT)
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