By Sue Chang, MarketWatch , Chris Matthews
S&P 500 on track for best day in 3 weeks
U.S. stocks vaulted higher Wednesday afternoon, with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average surging more than 500 points, as investors
interpreted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on
interest rates as dovish.
Worries about tighter liquidity as the Fed maintained a hawkish
stance in its bid to normalize the monetary policy had cast a
shadow on the market.
How are the benchmarks trading?
The Dow rallied 529 points, or 2.1%, to 25,280, while the
S&P 500 index advanced 49 points, or 1.9%, to 2,731, on track
for its best percentage gain in three weeks. The Nasdaq Composite
Index rose 169 points, or 2.4%, to 7,251.
What's driving the market?
"Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they
remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that
would be neutral for the economy -- that is, neither speeding up
nor slowing down growth," said Powell during a speech at the
Economic Club of New York
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seemingly-dovish-powell-says-interest-rates-are-just-below-level-where-they-wont-stimulate-economy-2018-11-28).
The comments were viewed by investors as a retreat from his
stance in early October when he had said that the central bank "may
go past neutral, but we're a long way from neutral at this point,
probably."
The more benign tone follows another round of harsh criticism
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-again-lashes-out-at-powell-says-hes-not-even-a-little-bit-happy-about-naming-him-fed-chief-2018-11-27)
from Trump, who told the Washington Post in a Tuesday interview,
that he was "not even a little bit happy" with his selection of
Powell to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed chair. Trump has repeatedly
criticized the Fed for raising interest rates.
Still, Powell said nothing to blunt expectations for a rate
increase when Fed policy makers meet next month. And several
economists argued that Powell's remarks were less dovish than they
sounded to investors
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-economists-insist-powell-wasnt-as-dovish-as-market-thinks-2018-11-28),
noting he made no mention of expectations for slower growth or
weaker inflation.
Aside from policy, trade concerns continue to linger as
investors await developments from the G-20 summit, set to begin
Friday in Buenos Aires, and which will include a face-to-face
meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi
Jinping.
The president and his top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, both
made statements this week
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/larry-kudlow-says-china-ought-to-take-trump-seriously-voices-skepticism-over-trade-deal-2018-11-27)
that cast doubt on the likelihood of a trade deal or framework that
would prevent new or expanded tariffs on Chinese imports from
taking effect in 2019. Other media reports, however, suggest
(https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/us/politics/trump-xi-trade-g-20.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)
that this is just posturing on the part of the White House.
What data are in focus?
The Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at a
3.5% annualized rate
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-grew-35-in-third-quarter-pushes-corporate-profits-to-6-year-high-gdp-shows-2018-11-28)
in the third quarter, in a second estimate that matched the first.
Economists polled by MarketWatch expected the number to be revised
up to 3.6%
Separately, data showed the deficit in advanced goods trade
widened to $77.2 billion
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-deficit-in-goods-widens-13-to-772-billion-in-october-2018-11-28)
in October from $76.3 billion the previous month. Economists
expected the deficit to rise to $77.7 billion.
New home sales fell to an annualized rate of 544,000 in October,
below the revised September rate of 597,000 new homes, the Census
Bureau reported Wednesday. The print came in below expectations of
a 589,000 pace, according to a MarketWatch poll of economists.
What are the strategists saying?
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomcs,
warned that Powell's remarks were "not as dovish as markets
think."
Shepherdson noted that the "broad range of estimates" of the
neutral rate in the Fed's September forecasts ran from 2.5% to
3.5%, while the target range for the fed-funds rate is now at 2% to
2.25%. So while the bottom of the range of estimates cited by
Powell is only one rate rise away, current rates are still three
hikes from the middle of the range and five from the top, he
said.
"Mr. Powell's own views might well be leaning to the dovish
side, but he was not, in our view, signaling any impending change"
in the Federal Open Market Committee's so-called dot-plot
projections of future interest rates, he said.
Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said
Powell did exactly what he needed to do. "He calmed the nerves of
investors worried about policy overshoot and retained all the
flexibility [he] had before he started talking," he said.
"Markets wanted to hear Powell say that there is no preset
course of rates, that he is mindful of weaknesses in the global
economy, and, most importantly, that tariffs have altered the
calculus of the future of the U.S. economy," he said.
The strong GDP report, although a revision of the initial
third-quarter GDP estimate, "is a reminder to investors just how
strong the U.S. economy is. With such strong growth, it's hard to
make the case that the U.S economy is deteriorating," said Matt
Forester, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon's Lockwood
Advisors.
Which stocks are in focus?
Tiffany & Co. (TIF)shares slumped
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tiffanys-stock-tumbles-as-chinese-tourists-spend-less-japan-slows-down-2018-11-28)12%
after the firm announced same-store sales that fell short of Wall
Street expectations.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) rose 5.1%, a day after the firm announced
that Cyber Monday
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-had-its-biggest-day-ever-on-cyber-monday-2018-11-27)
was its biggest single-day of sales in the company's history.
According to Rakuten Intelligence data, Amazon has secured 24% of
total online holiday sales, followed by Best Buy Co.(BBY), which
captured a 7% share. Best Buy shares rose 1.6%.
Wayfair Inc. (W) surged 14% after the online furniture and home
goods retailer reported a 58% increase in direct retail sales over
the peak five-day holiday shopping weekend.
Shares of Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS) tumbled 39% after the women's
apparel and accessories retailer reported a fiscal third-quarter
profit that missed expectations as well as a steep decline in
sales.
Salesforce.com(CRM) shares gained 8.9% after the company beat
Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit and sales, and
raised its 2019 outlook.
Shares of Discovery Inc. (DISCA) rose 3.3% after the company's
Golf TV unit announced an exclusive, long-term global content
partnership with Tiger Woods.
J.M Smucker Co. (SJM) sank 7.3% after the consumer foods company
missed profit and sales expectations
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jm-smuckers-stock-falls-after-profit-and-sales-miss-lowered-guidance-2018-11-28)
and cut its full-year outlook.
Shares of Western Digital Corp. (WDC) shed 4.3% after the
company announced Tuesday evening
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/western-digital-cfo-to-step-down-2018-11-27)
that Chief Financial Officer Mark Long has decided to step down to
become a private-equity investor.
How are other markets trading?
Asian markets closed in the green
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-rise-in-cautious-trading-2018-11-27),
with Japan's Nikkei 1% higher on strong domestic demand for
consumer products. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.3%,
while in China, both the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen
Composite Indices rallied more than 1%.
European stocks pared earlier gains
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-inch-higher-with-trade-talks-fed-chair-in-focus-2018-11-28),
with the Stoxx Europe 600 ending virtually unchanged.
Crude oil
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-churn-as-us-inventory-climb-expected-2018-11-28)
fell sharply, while gold settled higher
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-steadies-as-powells-interest-rate-insight-awaited-2018-11-28)
and the U.S. dollar weakened
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-set-to-take-cues-from-speech-by-feds-powell-2018-11-28)
following Powell's speech.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 28, 2018 15:06 ET (20:06 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.