HONOLULU, May 25, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- In the most
recent and largest poll of likely registered Democrat voters,
Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa holds
a commanding lead over incumbent David Ige.
The poll was conducted by Qmark Research of Honolulu from April 21
to May 7, 2018. It included registered voters with a history
and likelihood of voting in the 2018 Democratic Primary Election to
be held on August 11, 2018. It should
be noted that the study period of this survey began after
the Ige campaign had begun its TV advertising and was completed
before the Hanabusa campaign TV advertising was
launched.
The total sample size was 888 individuals statewide, including
voters from Oahu (477),
Maui County (99), Kauai (75), and Hawaii Island (237). The mixed
mode methodology included live caller contacts to landline
telephones and mobile phones, as well as online survey contacts,
approximately one-third using each mode. (To ensure greater
accuracy, the survey did not include so-called robo calls.)
The margin of error for a total sample of this size (n=888) is
+/- 3.36 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. To date,
this is the largest Democratic Primary sample size and lowest
margin of error in a poll this election cycle.
RACE FOR GOVERNOR
In the poll, registered voters who
indicated a likelihood of selecting the Democratic Ballot in the
upcoming primary election were asked which of the top candidates
for governor they would likely support if the election were held
today. It showed Colleen Hanabusa
holds a greater than 2:1 advantage over the incumbent David Ige,
52% to 23%.
Undecided/Don't Know voters comprised 19%. Even if David Ige
could capture the entire undecided vote, he would still fall well
short of closing the lead Hanabusa holds.
At just 6%, Clayton Hee is a
relative non-factor in the
race.
Hanabusa's lead over Ige is more pronounced on the Neighbor
Islands where she holds a 36-point advantage over Ige. On
Oahu, Hanabusa's lead is
27-points.
Looking only at those who say they will "definitely vote" in the
primary, or who have a strong history of "always voting" in primary
elections gives Hanabusa an even larger lead over Ige: 57% to
21%.
Significantly, Hanabusa holds double-digit leads in every
demographic group: ethnicity, gender, age, geography,
union/non-union, years in Hawaii,
employment, and conservative or liberal ideology.
Among voters of Japanese ancestry, Hanabusa captured 60% of this
important demographic segment compared to 18% for Ige. Among
Caucasians, Hanabusa holds a 22-point lead over Ige, with an even
wider gap among Native Hawaiians (33-point lead).
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among all of the candidates for
governor tested, Colleen Hanabusa
receives the highest favorability score (mean/ratio). Nearly
two-thirds (64%) of potential voters polled currently have a
favorable opinion of Hanabusa. Nineteen percent hold a negative
view of her, while 14% have yet to form an opinion.
|
FAVORABLE
|
UNFAVORABLE
|
NO OPINION
|
RATIO FAV:UNFAV
|
MEAN
|
Hanabusa
|
64%
|
19%
|
14%
|
3.36:1
|
2.46
|
Ige
|
42%
|
42%
|
15%
|
1.00:1
|
1.99
|
Hee
|
19%
|
27%
|
41%
|
0.70:1
|
1.90
|
- Hanabusa is strongest on the Neighbor Islands where 69% have a
favorable opinion of her while just 14% think negatively. Her
numbers on Oahu are also solid
(62% favorable, 21% unfavorable.)
- Female voters tend to have a more favorable opinion of Hanabusa
with an only 15% unfavorable showing.
- David Ige did not fare well in any group, receiving a 1:1
favorability ratio, meaning for every favorable opinion there was a
corresponding negative sentiment toward the governor.
- Clayton Hee received
significantly more unfavorable opinions than favorable.
KEY CANDIDATE ATTRIBUTES
Registered voters were also
queried on their reasons for choosing Hanabusa over Ige. When asked
which candidate they associated most with each favorable attribute,
they selected Hanabusa as the leader in every category:
|
ATTRIBUTE
|
HANABUSA
|
IGE
|
|
|
"Is a strong
leader"
|
60%
|
14%
|
|
|
"Communicates
clearly"
|
57%
|
13%
|
|
|
"Gets the job
done"
|
52%
|
19%
|
|
|
"Has a deep
understanding of the issues"
|
49%
|
17%
|
|
|
"Is an ethical
officeholder"
|
42%
|
26%
|
|
|
"Cares about
Hawai'i"
|
42%
|
18%
|
|
ISSUES OF GREATEST VOTER CONCERN
Registered voters
were asked about some of the largest campaign issues facing our
community, and then ranked the ones of greatest importance to
them.
Key findings of the most relevant issues included:
- Homelessness is something that Oahu (19%) voters identified as their top
issue and did so in greater numbers than their Neighbor Island (9%)
counterparts.
- Female voters were more likely to select either education or
jobs and wages/minimum wage as their most important issue than were
male voters.
- Younger, less affluent voters were more likely to select jobs
and wages/minimum wage as their top issue. Filipinos in particular
appear more concerned about this topic.
- Affordable housing is more likely to be selected by liberals,
while the economy was the top choice among conservatives likely to
vote in the Democratic Primary.
- Legalizing recreational use of marijuana and legalized gambling
were not considered significant compared to other issues.
PROFILE OF SURVEY RESPONDENTS
|
OVERALL
|
COMMENTS
|
|
|
|
ISLAND
|
|
|
Oahu
|
71%
|
Weighted to
population estimate of adults 18+
|
Big Island
|
13%
|
|
Maui
County
|
11%
|
|
Kauai
|
6%
|
|
OAHU
|
|
|
Metro HNL
|
33%
|
Random
sample.
|
East HNL
|
11%
|
|
Windward/ North
Shore
|
15%
|
|
Central
|
25%
|
|
West
|
16%
|
|
VOTE
HISTORY
|
|
|
All/Most
|
85%
|
Majority have voted
in all or most of the elections since eligible.
|
Some/Few
|
12%
|
|
1st Time voter
|
3%
|
|
POLITICAL
PARTY
|
|
|
Democrat
|
87%
|
Screener ensured high
proportion of Democrats in sample.
|
Independent
|
7%
|
|
Republican
|
2%
|
|
Refused
|
5%
|
|
UNION
HOUSEHOLD
|
38%
|
|
BORN IN
HAWAII
|
62%
|
|
RESIDENCE
|
|
|
Own
|
67%
|
|
Rent
|
29%
|
|
AGE
|
50.65
|
|
ETHNICITY
|
|
|
Caucasian
|
28%
|
Targeted proportion
based on estimate of adults over 18 years of age.
|
Japanese
|
28%
|
|
Hawaiian
|
18%
|
|
Filipino
|
13%
|
|
HSE
INCOME
|
|
|
< $50K
|
21%
|
|
$50K-$100K
|
36%
|
|
$100K+
|
32%
|
|
Refused
|
11%
|
|
GENDER
|
|
|
Male
|
45%
|
Targeted proportion
based on estimate of adults over 18 years of age.
|
Female
|
55%
|
|
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SOURCE Hanabusa for Governor