Fed's George: More 'Gradual' Rate Rises Are Needed
July 17 2018 - 8:45PM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said
Tuesday more rate rises are needed, and she warned there may be
signs of looming stress inside the financial system.
"Gradual further increases in our policy rate will be necessary
to return policy to a neutral stance, although there is
considerable uncertainty about exactly how far or fast we need to
go," Ms. George said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery
before an event at her bank.
Ms. George isn't a voting member of the interest-rate setting
Federal Open Market Committee. She has been one of the Fed's most
aggressive supporters of rate rises. She spoke on the same day as
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who started the first of two days of
testimony before Congress. He told legislators the economic outlook
is solid and called for gradual rate rises.
"The U.S. economy is in excellent shape, operating with tight
labor markets and low and stable inflation," Ms. George said. But
she added trade issues are a risk for the economy, and she added a
note of concern about the financial sector.
"Financial stress may be building in some sectors," Ms. George
said. "The corporate bond market and subprime borrowers appear to
be at some risk should interest rates rise sharply," she said,
adding "asset prices remain elevated."
Ms. George also said, "I am concerned that regulators are not
doing more to build resilient capital buffers into the banking
system at a time of cyclical strength."
Ms. George also said she is unsure what to make of a bond market
development many are interpreting as a concerning sign for the
future of the economy. Short and long-dated bond yields are growing
much closer and might move from a normally positive relationship to
a negative one. These so-called yield curve inversions in the past
have been strongly associated with recessions.
"While the yield curve has not yet inverted, it is relatively
flat by historical standards, raising the possibility that further
increases in policy rates could move them above longer-term rates,"
Ms. George said. "It's not clear how concerned we should be about
this possibility."
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 17, 2018 20:30 ET (00:30 GMT)
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