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YOUR SHARE TIP FOR 2002

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Franceys - Wed, 02 Jan 02 :

Protherics (PTI). The only multi-bagger possibility I see on the horizon.
Now 36.5p, although immediately after Sept 11 I was buying at just over 20p.

A reason among quite a few:
Have a look at WestLB Panmure's PTI's post-interims update where they go into Angiotensin(vaccine for high blood pressure) and CytoTab(severe sepsis treatment) prospects impressively deeply.
In short, their discounted cash flow valuation (@14% DCF rate) values the company at £370m or 212p a share. Their immediate 12 month upside is 178% with shares valued at 100p. Both CytoTab and Angiotensin vaccine are assessed at 22.5% probability of reaching market and both have a 25% royalty on sales, with peak penetration of each market assessed at 20%. They value the total hypertension market (Angiotensin aimed at this)at $30bn.
Converting $30bn to £ at today's rates gives £20.85bn p.a. market (but obviously more if real total market is $36bn). Now a 20% penetration of the blood pressure control market gives £4.17bn and a 25% royalty yields £1.0425bn per year income whereas PTI as a company is currently valued at just £65m!

OK somewhat pie in the sky stuff, but us holders are happy with the limited downside because of cash being earned now from FDA approved niche vaccines and this gigantic upside.


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