YOUR SHARE TIP FOR 2002

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Mr Ashley James - Tue, 01 Jan 02 :

Morose,

I am not a diamond fan (De Beers behaviour if they want a concession, their reducing control on market/prices and lack of rarity in view Canadian finds, Botswana, Russian, Angola output) nor a Petra fan, sorry, although I do think the concessions in Africa are enormous, I used to specialise in French Africa, I just do not like the director's South African legacies. I am still confused over Oryx issues/Omani tie up. The offtake/financing agreement is very clever just not sure if dual edged sword tieing to one Antwerp diamond house. In truth I have not really done enough research into PDL to accurately judge.

If I bought into Diamonds I would probably want to buy Alarosa in Yakutia or maybe Kensington Resources!

I could easily be wrong fundamentally PDL looks strong, ie v. large resource potential.

Re CER, the share will move strongly IMHO when London listing goes ahead and once market cap enters the institutional radar screen around £20m to £25m market cap ie 13p to 16.50p, at moment only one institution in CER FRIF (Framlington Russian Investment Fund) £18m virtually entirely private investors,and some 92 people hold 90% of stock hence volatility with tight freefloat of I believe less than 10% in reality).

I do not think you can chart illiquid, sentiment driven sub £25m market cap shares, also CER is now a producing miner, not an exploration stock, so will in the end be judged on EPS, revenue, profits etc from Nez and Suzdal)

When London listing goes ahead I expect March/April I think CER will double pretty quickly IMHO. I will be surprised if CER trades below 10p again, and would expect a sizeable lift once project finance in place via Standard Bank and Zenit.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash


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