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easytimes - Thu, 30 Dec 04 :

AA- your calc of 6p SP (not your prediction) is based on (your figures) £4million PBT with a mkt cap of £45 million and PE of 15 that is where I am in dispute with you. The 6p I believe could be possible IF the business has turned around by YE 2005 which gives a market cap of £45 million, I disagree with your assumptions of the profit and the PE ratio of 15. If the market sentiment is high then we can see a price at this level on a higher PE and a lower PBT figure based on the market anticipating positive projections of future trading.

We CANNOT even begin to include any value until this company has actually turned the corner. My point is that there are too many ifs and buts to come up with a PBT figure and a PE ratio. The only two values which are known are the hypothetical 6p SP and the £45 Mil mkt cap. That was my point on a valuation that I said you'd made. Can you honestly see them generating £4 PBT, no? Neither can I, but I can see an SP of 6p is technically possible under different conditions, therefore 6p being a possiblity in 12 months. If we get further bad news we can see an SP less than 1.25p who knows? It is obvious to me that you were implying £4 million PBT would be a requirement for an SP of 6p.

To add weight to my argument I mentioned Stream which is in the same market sector and in a lot of ways a competitor to WTV. They are operating in profit, given a high valuation based on market sentiment. The ratio of the turnover and corresponding PBT being very high (Figures posted earlier).


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