Where now? Carlisle?

I have to confess that I do not understand the intracies of CSV's accounts. I note indebtedness has reduced to £62.8 million from £164.9 million 2002 H1 but that this an increase from 2001 FY of £49 million. Also, all but £3.9 million of debt is due to the convertible notes due in 2005 so bank pressure should not be an issue. The loan notes were increased in September and October 2002 (ie subsequent to 2002 H1), indirectly by the new CEO, Julian Treger, via a trust fund in which he has an interest via inheritance. The increase, via the fund was 250%.

From this scenario and the sell off of the European business a year ago, I would expect possible further shrinking of activity with a sell off of the American business, then a management buy out of the remaining UK business, that is unless someone else does not get in first. The first three months of 2003 will be critical as we lead in to 2002 full year results. There may be an indication of things to come with a trading update and/or director's dealings in January. However, this will depend upon the all round market performance and any recovery or otherwise in the Dow and FTSE indices.

Finally, the equations of the major share holdings may be an indicator with with Active+Ashcroft+Shroder's=over 50% and Active+Ashcroft=over 40% especially considering Capital and Fidelity last disclosed at both sub 3% and now no longer required to declare any further sells. This is why the exchanged shares are so significant as they could pass to an intermediary and then to a major share holder in a lump sum transaction. Nearly 3% of shares have been exchanged since mid November so could represent complete dumping by one of the two sub 3% holders or reductions from both. The fact that they have been readily taken up is, I believe highly significant.