Waves, Patterns & Projections (2004)

If the last 2 years are anything to go by, the earlier 5608 will probably be bested in between Christmas and New Year but I cannot see a whole lot more before the inevitable multi-wave correction takes control. This fifth Up wave (since the pseudo, 14 day correction from 5515 to 5131)....5489:5608....is only 02.17% but previous Up Segments have concluded with similarly shallow Up waves and the aggregate of 09.30% ought to be ballparkish for an alleged bolt-on.

I really am looking forward to seeing Oils, Miners, Construction, Leisure (what is keeping this sector going ?) and Defensives being subjected to some serious bathing......but I think we could see a sizeable drop in the index levels without the expected new crop i.e. TMTs being seriously affected so my wife will be retaining the bulk of her SIPP holdings and looking for opportunities to top up towards the end of Q1 2006.

However, I still fancy that America has further upside in this Segment that started from 10157 (DOW) and 2026 (NAS) so FTSE may hang around for a while longer than I would like but it's still possible that DOW has completed part two of a three part move in the primary sequence 10001:10719:10157:10959 and that the big numbers will not be reached until well into next year.

Nevertheless short FTSE (from 5605 today), Leisure (losing large) & Real Estate (slightly worse than entry level) and holding (for the medium term) and out of the APPL short (on any initial weakness) when America opens leaving CSCO and DIS Long....might supplement with IBM or HD Long.