The market never fails to surprise me, everything can point to the market going in a certain direction and then it does the opposite. The market has a mind of its own.
On german exports to the US I believe they are worse than many believe they are and I think the problem will be currency based. Even if the exports do hold on a par to what they are at now, analyst profit forecast are based on a euro rate of e1.10 you have now got a euro near e1.26. Analyst will have to re-look at the profit forecast and start downgrading german export co's or there will be a run of profit warnings. I think when companies say the euro is hurting but they are overcoming the problem is in fact them trying to put a brave face on the situation hoping the dollar will rise soon. October export figures for germany fell by 6.5% and since then the euro has got stronger and i can't see any improvement coming through.
I am looking forward to next week when we will see volumes start to return to normal, its been impossible to spread bet the markets over the xmas period the prices jump all over the place especially at start of trade.
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