Waves, Patterns & Projections (2003)

I'm still here, hatman, albeit barely (or should that be bearly)..........severely mauled by the charging bovine but continuing to keep a modest short presence.

My latest disappointment has been the realisation of the theta factor on Puts. I knew there was such a time decay factor but it appears that my DJ 9000's are to lose (03.4%) per week and my DJ 10,000s (01.9%) per week irrespective of market movements. Over time, the level of decay (as if the current percentages were not enough) apparently also increases. Is this really a viable way of shorting the market ?

10,376 looks like it could be the Phase top for DOW but that almost certainly means it is not. FTSE has further to climb and 4466 or 4478 are still my favourite numbers. When the DOW Phase (it has gone too high for a Segment or Wave consolidation IMHO) top is finally in, I am loooking for a performance similar to the intermediate Down phase in the 98/99 Bull. On a closing price basis (falsely assuming 10,376 is the top), I see DOW gradually going down to c10,153 on or around 31/12 with FTSE closing @ c4368 in the same timeframe. The next couple of days thru to c03/01/2004 should see the attempt to regain the high ground with FTSE actually creating the new high previously alluded to but DOW failing to best 10,376 with a close of c10,306. That is the time to crunch both and indeed any bourses IMO as the following c7 days should see a close of c9698 and c4186. The Down phase should last for c68 days and my revised closing price targets now stand @ c9247 and c4007 respectively.

As with the 99 finale and on balance, I do still believe that there will be another Phase of the Bull which should start in late March/early April 2004 and I certainly ain't going to be short while that is going on.........a final chance for me and the Mrs to make a few gains in our battered SIPPs prior to the armageddon Bear which should start in the summer of 2004.