Fwiw, I believe the price now needs time to trickle down below 24pps at which point we will probably be able to assess the price recovery prospects. Until then, I will remain flat or alternatively, if I am wrong (ie sub 24pps level is not seen), I will pass on the market in VTI.
Basic TA measurements yielded the levels we have now seen which may convince some that the low is in at 24.75pps (see calculations notes 1 & 2 below). I think that is incorrect because a corrective Elliott wave sequence suggests the low should come in at 23.334 (ie 23.5pps - see note 3 below).
Regards, Tom.
Calculation notes:
1. Support (34.50pps on 12/08/2005) from resistance at 42.75pps (on 09/09/2005) was broken first on 29/10/2005, resulting in the end of a corrective wave A at 30.75pps (04/11/2005). The 29/10 neckline break yielded a maximum measurement of 26.25pps (ie 34.50pps - (42.75pps-34.5pps)).
2. The neckline break (see 1 above) was confirmed by a rally up to and failure at 36.75pps (02/12/2005), ending Elliott corrective wave B and yielding a maximum measurement of 24.75pps (30.75pps - (36.75pps - 30.75pps). That price was printed as an intra-day low on 15/12/2005.
3. However, if this a corrective Elliott wave pattern (A,B,C) the target measurement is normally calculated from the first corrective wave A, to yield a "probable" level. This yields 23.5pps rounded => 30.75pps (low end wave A) - (42.75pps - 30.75pps =12pps * 0.618 =) 7.416pps = 23.334pps. This target would also fill the gap created here between Wednesday 1 June 2005 (close 23.5pps) and Thursday 2 June 2005 (open 25pps).
All my own opinion, of course, which could be wrong. DYOR, NAG, etc.
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