VOG 2005 New Thread

extract from last week on calculations:

If you're interested in the calculation, it goes something like this. D&M, the respected independent assessors, put the range of probable gas reserves at East Medvezhye at between 92 billion cu ft (the 'low' figure, below) and 2.3 trillion cu ft (the 'high' figure), with the 'expected' value at 0.5 trillion, as already mentioned. Assume that Gazprom pays its going rate of $40 per 1,000 cu metres (about a third of the free-market price). The gas is valued like this:

Low:
92,000m cu ft = 2,600m cu m * $40/1000 = $104m = £62m.

Expected:
500bn cu ft = 14,000m cu m * $40/1000 = $560m = £329m

High:
2.3trillion cu ft = 64bn cu m * $40/1000 = $2,560m = £1.5bn

Now let's be really conservative, ignore the 'high' figure and take the average of the 'low' and 'expected' figure. That gives a valuation of £200m or about £2.50 a share.

And that's only for West Medvezhye. That isn't Victoria's only asset. It has 35m barrels of recoverable oil at Kermokol in Kazakhstan, where it's targeting production of 4,000 barrels of oil a day within 3 years. That alone is worth just under 1 pound a share. Looked at in that way, West Medvezhye is in the share price for about 20p rather than 2.5 pounds


With price of gas going up annually by 20% and Vog in early production days, I dont beleive the above calculations posted, will be correct in the near future??

Any body wish to guestimate??