VOG 2005 New Thread

If £3 fair value discounted from £5 for 74.8% ownership of West Med was being suggested as fair value by Ambrian on a 0.5 tcf find -

then with full 100% ownership, that would suggest £4 fair value discounted from £6.65 on the same 0.5 tcf gas.

With Degolyer and MacNaughton suggesting up to 2.3 tcf (VOG themselves say more to come) from well site 104 alone, that gives a potential 4.6 increase which on Ambrians figures would then suggest a maximum of £18.40 discounted from £30.60. Thats exactly as the figures suggest!

With other well site zones to yet be drilled and much highly valued condensate of potentially 200mbo recoverable in other areas of the field to be located, the upside is immense (if all works out - the continued director buying and outside of the placing suggets a lot of confidence in addition to the advisors taking shares instead of cash payment for their services).

Kemerkol on it's own, with a potential of 60mbo could on further work (which has now started) be valued at a potential $5/b or $300m or £175m for the field or the eqivalent of £1.75 per share.

Obviously at two and a half times oversubscribed, those who were privy to the details of the story were obviously impressed.