VOG 2005 New Thread

I see EK is hot on VOG.

Evil's hot tips for 2006
An extract from the short sellers diaries on t1ps.com
Three times a week the UK's most notorious short seller Evil Knievil chats with his faithful diarist (myself, Tom Winnifrith). As a result of our chat, I take full responsibility for writing up the Evil Knievil Diaries, a record of the trades and thoughts of the infamous Bear. What follows are a very abridged version of my words in the diary of Evil Knievil from Monday December 19th. The Evil Knievil diaries appear only on t1ps.com and a new entry has been published today. Click here to sign up.

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I read more in the weekend press about the woes of young Charles Kennedy and find myself bonding ever closer to the man. We have a lot in common: my father played for Scotland and Mr Kennedy is Scottish. I see that he describes himself as an "relatively infrequent and moderate drinker" and so too am I. And, of course, neither of us has ever led a serious political party. Both Mr Kennedy and I have just endured several tiring weeks in the media spotlight ( I see that my book received another super write-up in Shares Magazine last Thursday) but at least we can now look forward to the festive break. I am sure that in the Kennedy croft as at Cawkwell Towers we may cut loose a little and so, perhaps, for one week only the "moderate" drinking will be a little bit less infrequent.

Chelski netted me a quick 2,000 pounds at the weekend but Liverpool's abject failure in that Japanese cup cost me 1,000 pounds. As I look back on 2005 I am struck by how Liverpool has cost me money on almost every single wager. It is bad enough that my hard earned cash is stolen by the taxman to pay for the institutionalised idleness which marks out Liverpool as a City which, even by the standards of the north, is bereft of hope. But to see more money draining away thanks to idle scousers really grates. The highlight of the weekend was going to see King Kong with Mrs Evil. We walked home afterwards with Mrs E five paces behind me as one would expect. She said that my posterior reminded her of something. I cannot think what she means..





Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) says it plans to raise 12.8 million pounds at 78p. I concede that an intention is not the same as delivery but I cannot believe that such an announcement would have ben published if the Foo man and his team were not confident. I, for one, will be supporting the issue.

I am asked for my thoughts on the outlook for 2006. There are some things that are easy to predict for 2006. Tony Blair will fail to admit that he told monstrous lies in taking us to war in Iraq and that country will remain a sort of barbaric hell hole, beset by chronic unemployment, electoral fraud and widespread illiteracy. Much the same can be said about Coventry. My latest book, The Notorious Diary of Evil Knievil, will continue to win rave reviews and my growing cult following will expand in size at an ever more rapid rate. So too will my girth.

To the markets.Consumer debt in Britain remains far too high and, in order to pay for Gordon Brown's legion of utterly useless public sector workers, taxes both corporate and personal will have to rise. So do not bet on consumer gloom lifting. Meanwhile British industry is - thanks to Mr Brown and also to the numbskulls of the Brussels based Evil Empire - becoming ever less competitive. At some stage the poor state of the real economy will filter through - via nasty earnings shocks on the downside - to the UK stockmarket. It may not surprise you to hear that I am bearish in outlook. The way that the equity markets have flown higher and higher as the real economy has weakened is utterly beyond all logical explanation. The best shorts? The blue sky hopefuls that have failed again and again to deliver. After three years of a bull market investor patience will snap. With minimal asset backing and hope devalued quickly stocks such as Medical Marketing (MMG), Torotrak (TRK) and some plastics company, whose name escapes me, are heading only one way.

So how, you may ask, will Britain's most ruthless share trader make money in 2006? Shorting overvalued rubbish is easy but I will also make a mint from my vast portfolio of gold stocks. I have been predicting for many years that the addiction of the Occidental Governments to printing vast amounts of new money in order to buy off stupid and short-sighted electorates would end in tears. The end is nigh. Gradually it is dawning on the ill-educated masses that paper currencies across the world are being devalued faster than you can say "Cherie Blair is a habitual free-loader" and the only way to play that is to buy gold. God is not fiscally imprudent. Man, by nature, is. I note that gradually it is dawning on the herd that gold is a good bet. When the frenzy really starts then the price will rocket ahead - I could see gold hitting $800 oz when the madness really starts. Gold producers are geared plays on the gold price and handily enough I own vast numbers of shares in several companies which are either already producing or soon will be, namely Centamin(CEY), Uruguay Minerals (UGY) and - via its portfolio of interests - Golden Prospect (GOL).

I am being pushed to name my top short for the year. Shall I reveal all? Teedum, teedum, teedum. Maybe not. But I see that it continues to decline steadily but - as I write - is still about 34p overvalued. And my nap of the year? Well one could do a lot worse than Speymill (SYG) whose chairman Bob McDonald visited Evil Towers late last week and was entertained in the modest and sober manner of which young Mr Kennedy would no doubt approve. There are 50 million shares in issue and another 10 million heavily in the money warrants. So lets call it 60 million shares which at 50p gives a value of c30 million pounds. Now I admit, before Comrade Legg points it out as per page 112 of the best book ever written, that the asset backing is minimal, perhaps 3 million pounds. However trading is strong. At the fitting out/ refurbishment arm of Speymill margins are c10% and based on sales- as I understand them (perhaps 25 million pounds pa) - this unit is worth, perhaps, 10 million pounds.

However, the real future lies in managing residential property portfolios in Germany. These properties yield 8%+ p.a. net of management fees. Yields of 9% p.a. and even more are in the bag and may be expected. Given the return on cash it is surprising that the Germans go along with this. But they do: like having no sense of humour and having a propensity to start World Wars, it is cultural. Speymill is in a 50/50 venture but even so, assuming it picks up 1% of the gross (i.e. gross of financing debt) portfolio, the first portfolio assembled yields 5 million pounds, half of which is Speymill's. There is no tax in the isle of Man. This suggests that a PE of 10 is fairly conservative - thus giving a valuation of 25 million pounds. Given that many portfolios can now be assembled, it is reasonable to expect Speymill to attain a valuation of well north of 100 million pounds. No further finance from shareholders is required. There must be competition in due course both to manage portfolios and for investors' cash to be invested. However, Speymill looks like a low-risk stock with the chance of trebling from here. Of course, it is already a multi-bagger for me but then I am incredibly clever.

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