Prior to any development or production they gave the following price valuations.
Based on $24 price per Barrel.
Kemerkol 13p
Tamdykol 1p
West Med
Gas £1.50
Condensate 58p
Total £2.22
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$30/B
Kemerkol 21p
Tamdykol 2p
West Med
Gas £2.08
Condensate 80p
Total £3.12
-------------------------
$36/B
Kemerkol 29p
Tamdykol 2p
West Med
Gas £2.70
Condensate £1.04
Total £4.08
--------------------------
$42/B
Kemerkol 40p
Tamdykol 3p
West Med
Gas £3.50
Condensate £1.34
Total £5.32
-----------------------------
$48/B
Kemerkol 50p
Tamdykol 4p
West Med
Gas £4.35
Condensate £1.67
Total £6.63
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They don't give a valuation above $48/b but move up a further $6 to $54 so
Kermerkol looks like 60p
Tamdykol still 4p
Gas at West Med £5.10
Condensate £2.00
Total £7.65 approx.
However Kemerkol C2 alone has been greatly increased with the licence area increased 4.5 fold since that May 05 valuation so should be worth more.
The valuations are based prior to any development at Kemerkol or West Med.
No valuation is given to Tamdykol at all bar a nominal 1-4p but would be worth much more as it is now being explored and if oil is found.
The valauations appear based on a 1 in 20 reserves probability/recovery factor or 5%
The medium term valuation prior to development/production given in May was 87p - £1.17 for Kemerkol and the Komunalnoe section only of West Med. Hence by the look of things the institutions got a good bargain at 55p subscription for the Kemerkol deal which has since been greatly improved in terms of reserves and exploration area. What price as we cross shortly into the production stage from Kemerkol ? as a producer and no longer an explorer. I expect that a re-rating will follow and we should be looking at £1.20/share.
Looking at the info on the production tables - during 2006 West Med could have pilot production of 8m cu ft/day and possibly 1000 bls of condensate per day in addition to 1800 bls by Q4 2006 from Kemerkol.
First Kemerkol production is expected from the shut in wells by start of 06 (2 months) with 1000 bls/day by end of the first quarter. The C2 reserves at Kemerkol have now been greatly improved.
The dark horse now is Tamdykol which is currently being drilled. If oil is found the Kazahk government have already notified Falcon oil that they will annex part of their licence area where some of the Tamdykol salt dome reserves at the edge of the Tamdykol licence are believed to encroach onto Falcons territory and would thus become the property of VOG.
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