:VODAFONE: Traders Thread, Long or Short!

With Vodafone going down at present, you might like to take a look at my favourite stock for 2003 and 2004, namely Alizyme (AZM). The key points are as follows:

A) In relation to revenues from licensing deals, Seymour Pierce (September 2002) recently suggested as follows:

"...Brett Pollard, an analyst at Seymour Pierce, thought Alizyme should be able to strike two licensing deals within the next 12 months, transforming its business.

He said a deal for COLAL-PRED could generate around £15 million, while a partner for Renzapride... might...pay £20 million.

...ATL-962 for obesity, could also be ripe for a £20 million deal later in 2003..".

To which I would add that PIIa trials for ATL-104 are due to begin around the end of December 2002, possibly also making it eligible for out-licensing during H1 2004.


B) In relation to revenues from sales:

Colal-Pred: PIII results due H1 2004, with application for marketing expected to be submitted mid 2004. The company may get royalties of 30% on sales of £180m to £250m pa.

Renzapride: potential annual sales of at least £350m and revenues to the Company of £87m pa.

ATL-962 for obesity: Similar action to Roche's Xenical, which has sales of $600 pa; but ATL-962 is said to be better tolerated and cheaper to produce than Xenical. AZM's Finance Director recently said he expected to "wipe the floor with Xenical".

ATL-104: the potential market for mucositis drugs currently exceeds $1 billion pa.