"GD I make you right and 103 was a 23% chance of success that Foo now says is 50/50% and would they be spending $2m testing if they were not comfortable. Do you think Foo under playing this ?"
As you state Percentage rates of success have risen significantly since drilling and hydrocarbon discoveries, think there could be a certain amount of playing this one down particularly after the 104 fiasco, yes $2 million is a lot to spend, but then if its an evens chance of success given all the information then it is well worth going for.
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