pbracken......If the market was logical and rational, every Institution would offer 30% annual returns, every pi a millionaire, all trades would be run via software on our pc's.
In reality funds win/lose. Monkeys with pins beat analysts and the vast majority of pi's lose money.
The market is about the money swilling around it, not the stocks where it temporarily rests.
If you want to apply logic then look for low fully diluted eps on a very low peg, then wait and wait. If no bad news comes then you may at some point move to profit when the swirling cash lands on your stock.......but was it your logic or just your turn ?
Follow the money not the stock if you want to trade, get in front of the money and have patience if you want to invest.