Dont forget VOG are testing three seperate hydrocarbon bearing horizons
(3 out of 6 horizons being tested) from 1 Well, which is a 50% chance of a strike.
The 1 in 4 is the average strike rate before any drilling/testing takes place.
The odds look far better of success, not forgetting the Russian discovery only 10 kilometres away from 103 and the bezhenov shale (which has produced 60-80% of all Russian gas) that is being tested, puts the odds more in our favour.
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