Victoria Oil & Gas: Fundamentals & Valuation Summary

Best of today's posts:

ZENGAS - 29 Dec'05 - 08:48 - 16836 of 16895


If £3 fair value discounted from £5 for 74.8% ownership of West Med was being suggested as fair value by Ambrian on a 0.5 tcf find -

then with full 100% ownership, that would suggest £4 fair value discounted from £6.65 on the same 0.5 tcf gas.

With Degolyer and MacNaughton suggesting up to 2.3 tcf (VOG themselves say more to come) from well site 104 alone, that gives a potential 4.6 increase which on Ambrians figures would then suggest a maximum of £18.40 discounted from £30.60. Thats exactly as the figures suggest!

With other well site zones to yet be drilled and much highly valued condensate of potentially 200mbo recoverable in other areas of the field to be located, the upside is immense (if all works out - the continued director buying and outside of the placing suggets a lot of confidence in addition to the advisors taking shares instead of cash payment for their services).

Kemerkol on it's own, with a potential of 60mbo could on further work (which has now started) be valued at a potential $5/b or $300m or £175m for the field or the eqivalent of £1.75 per share.

Obviously at two and a half times oversubscribed, those who were privy to the details of the story were obviously impressed.

With the placing out of the way, the financial papers (Daily Mail included) can have nothing negative to say about the company - with a placing 2.5 times over subscribed, continued director buying inside and outside of the placing, the advisors taking shares instead of cash and the company buying out the remaining 25.2% of the field - surely the likes of Geoff Foster must realise what a total arse he's been.

hudaikara - 29 Dec'05 - 10:26 - 16889 of 16922


Aim's Victoria Oil raises 13 million in placing
Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:42 AM GMT


LONDON (Reuters) - Oil and gas developer Victoria Oil & Gas, which saw its share price triple in a week in November on a major Russian gas find, said on Thursday it had raised 13.1 million pounds in a placing that was two-and-a-half times oversubscribed.

The company, which is listed on London's junior Alternative Investment Market, said it had placed 16.85 million shares at 78 pence each with institutional and other investors.

Victoria's Chairman Kevin Foo said the placing would allow the company to maintain momentum on key projects.

Shares in Victoria Oil & Gas Plc (VOG.L: Quote, Profile, Research) closed at 114-1/2 pence on Wednesday, valuing the company at 96.5 million pounds.

Shares in the energy minnow doubled on November 17 and tripled in the space of a week after Victoria said an independent appraisal of its West Medvezhye gas field showed the deposit contained at least 500 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves.

The appraisal showed the reserves could be as much as 2.3 trillion cubic feet, which would be equivalent to about 13 percent of the total proven natural gas reserves in the North Sea and other parts of Britain, on the basis of figures from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

West Medvezhye dwarfs Victoria's other development projects, the Kemerkol and Tamdykol blocks in Kazakhstan.


ZENGAS - 29 Dec'05 - 11:15 - 16928 of 16958


Ive been in this stock since inception and have traded a non core holding along the way but the fact is this -

The directors won't care one iota who shorts or not. There is too much potential good news in the pipeline. We are not talking about just any old gas find but something as big as possibly 13% of North Sea Gas supplies at its height in addtion to a potential 60 mb oil field that could become a substantial cash cow. They don't put themselves on the block time after time buying shares, buying out the remainder of the field, buying shares for employees, taking shares in lieu of salary and their advisors doing likewise. We have already had a massive signed off recoverable figure from D&M that may be much greater. Relate to that the value given in the brokers estimate and also which was substantially and heavily discounted.

The directors have bought in from the start and bought again at circa 37p. None of that stock was sold. They then buy again substantially in the placing at 78p. On top of that they buy again at 105p yesterday. They won't be selling any time at all soon.

Just like the days of 40p. these days of £1.20 will be seen as another excellebt buying opportunity but sadly will be missed by many who instead of buying in a valuation range wait it out for a few pennies here and there. The bottom line is potential much, much greater than it is today.