Andonis, I think the 10969 we saw for the DOW was its attempt at the much talked about 11000 for year end. The fact that it re-traced from there and could not get back to test a new high makes me believe that the foreign investment that has driven the market is not prepared to buy with the dollar rates as they are. US intrest rates are well defined at a level of 4.75%. target. The Japan issue is very strong with interest rates coming off the zero level and the growth levels as they are. A huge ammount of US investment is heading East. The DOW volumes are low. The 10% rise since September is not to be ignored.. There has to be a top somewhere in every market phase. I would not say that it has been reached yet but its so close its not worth the risk to go long. I would look closely at volumes and if they kick in at the 10920/30 level. Failing that its on the way down.... There are some old School US traders pointing at 10000. next year.
10700 near term.... 10400 in a January sell off. My pet trades are March contracts...I have been selling every time it gets near 10920. I sell the FTSE at the same time....
I post the above from the 19th December and see no reason to act like a muppet and change my analysis at this time, only the ftse that is costing me at the moment for 89 points ave. on three contacts, grinding lower.. Ftse showing 16% profit in the last year but only if you traded in Euros fom Stateside a more meagre 4.3% if you traded in pounds....I still fancy the DOW will drag the FTSE with it in January . Regards have a nice New Year Party all...
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