I've been analysing stock movements on all sectors on the S&P and the transition from growth to defensive (early recession) stocks is getting bigger by the day. We are seeing a siginificant transfer of stocks to this area by the large fund managers. High commodity prices, high energy costs combined with high interest rates means any signs of weakness on consumer spending will turn the tide on stocks. It might not happen immediately but I'm convinced it's on the cards pretty soon. Curtailing high prices for commodities and energy will be top of the list for the Fed IMO.