Interestingly, the last update ("Analyst Update") on 7 Nov said:
The trading environment during the third quarter and for the first month of the
fourth quarter of the current year has remained buoyant. Sales across all
sectors are up significantly with margins being sustained.
The recent Trading Statement said:
Over the last month, however, margins have been impacted by high raw material
prices and lower prices for skimmed milk powder in the export market. Whilst UPG continues to believe the company will deliver strong profit growth in the current year, this growth will not be as pronounced as previously expected as a result of this impact on margins.
- so that will impact the last six weeks or so of their year, which ends on Dec 31. It may be that eps will come out below the broker consensus which I posted earlier - don't know.
The disturbing bit (apart from the superb timing) is the bit which I underlined. Though it's difficult to see how they could say anything else!
However, it could be argued that they stuck their neck out when they said, earlier, "margins being sustained", and they are retracting an over-positive statement.
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