Excellent thread, energyi. Well reasoned, informative and rational.
I believe the US trade deficit holds the key to the $'s future performance more than any other variable. I don't believe that you can run such a large deficit without a sudden large downward, panic-driven movement in the currency.
It drives everything from interest rate policy, to taxation levels, to government debt. It is vital that they try to get a grip of this NOW rather than later, and that may involve quite a sharp pain for the world economy as a whole.
This whole situation where the American consumer drives the world economy by importing good and printing more debt, which is then bought by foreign countries from the proceeds of their expenditure is absurd and unsustainable. The sooner it is popped the better.