"Fact one: the share price INVARIABLY drops to below the pre-RNS price."
Confucis1. Are you saying this has always been true of TRT only or are you suggesting it is invariably true. I cannot imagine you believe it to be true of all companies RNS.
In respect of TRT I think time frames and type of company should be considered - I was trying to see if there were any parallels I could draw from XAAR which is a patent heavy play that has delivered.Increasing by 10 times in 30 months would suggest that falling to below pre-RNS might have occurred but in fact is irrelevant. I am sure that if/when a big deal for TRT is announced the price will NEVER be remotely near the pre-RNS price. That is why I only ever part with 10% of my holding when need arises.
BTW I have given up guessing on the Michelin announcement as the chances of being wrong are too high to be out of the stock completely for any period at all. After all a big commercial splash can come after Xmas but something in the trade press about forthcoming developments for 2006 could spring the cat from the bag ............