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konil - Tue, 20 Dec 05 :

wdurham, re: 1683, i guess we're looking at about 50% tax (can't remember the exact figure but wont be visiting the site again for fear of virus).

for comparison purposes i have looked at the canico onca puma feasibility but have to admit the tax info is a bit obscure for my head, so i'll simplify it to approx 25%.

if tmc will be taxed at 50% then the economics of berong et al will be less appealing in comparison to onca puma due to the higher taxes.

on a very very simplistic basis, canico sold for £430m, tmc's berong resources alone are about the same as onca puma, but due to the higher taxes let's assume the net value will be a very conservative 50% of onca puma, if so then tmc would be worth £215 on berong alone.

so conservatively we're looking at 11 bags to go from £19m to £215m and that's without celestial and ulugang and no account taken of the early cash flows from the low cost direct shipping operations.

of course there are some stocks where blue sky (or should that be greenfield) exploration could yield better but those also come with the high risk that exploration could yield nothing except losses.

i still haven't found another stock where the upside on proven resources is this big.

even with aen i think we're looking at 6 bags (from £4 to £24) once the full potential of the phulbari project is attained but they wont even start production till 2008 and full production wont be till 2013. and the one or two others that i'm keen on don't approach anything like 11 bags.


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