Thistle Mining: Charts & Fundamentals

Meridian and TMG creditors acquired 95% of the equity in June by acquiring/writing off $60 mn of TMG's debt. That values the company at around 80p per share. Let's say total costs per oz are $500 in 2006 (which includes admin and interest payments) and the POG averages $550. A profit of $50 per oz at production of 200,000 ozs implies profit of $10 mn. Assuming this is sustained, and a pe ratio of 10, and allowing for empowerment, this values the company conservatively at $75 mn or about $1.50 per share or also roughly 80p. (A POG of $600 doubles that valuation.) The management want to raise equity finance prior to a TSX listing in Q2/Q3, to reduce debt and provide working capital. Whether TMG is currently a good investment (or even a spectacular one) depends critically on whether they can find investors who appreciate the company is fairly valued at at least 80p a share and will buy 50 mn new shares (50% dilution) at 50p or so. They certainly can't buy the shares on the open market: they are held tightly. Management would be daft to issue new equity at less than 50p per share. Any thoughts, holdontight??