Similar here Lenny! memory not great, much better at solving complex problems/structures. I also have a terrible attention span (but I remember that was endemic in the city so I regard it as something of a plus ... everyone in a hurry to get rich quick ;) ).
TRX story is great as long as there isn't actually any accounting fraud. Think that its highly unlikely for several reasons:
(i) TRX is basically the sum of its parts: unless you believe the majority of the companies acquired were crooked, any fraud should be quite limited.
(ii) Net debt better than forecast at last trading statement, implies better 2006 fullyear Free cash FLow than house broker's model of about £5m, which in turn potentially implies maybe as much as £15m operating profit *above house broker's forecasts* i.e. significantly above market expectations
(iii) Barclays bid at 72p rejected as too low
(iv) Obvious moves by management to create positive news flow and get the share price up including management shakeups which look more significant than in the past.
(v) Significant management stock purchases.
(vi) Large, continued institutional backing, particularly by Goldmansachs. Bid and stake-building rumours over past 2 months.
(vii) Still significant short interest on low free float (about 2/3 of shares still owned by institutions/management). Assuming they don't know something we don't, they will have to buy back their shorts (unless they are hedged via e.g. long convertible bond trade).
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