the way ahead for bgy

Dear All,

Since my last post, we have had some rather baffling material submitted here, both from the posters and more importantly BGY itself. I failed to interpret the point that Jdobrucki was attempting to make in his post no. 5033, not least due to the fact that it was written in a rather incomprehensible format more readily known as drivel. He indicates that bondholders are unwise to accept a d4e swap in which they retain 97.5% of the equity of what was a former ftse 100 darling. Quite what he has been inhaling or smoking i am not sure but his sparse knowledge of the markets notwithstanding, this was still a remarkable judgement from jdob. I ought to remind him that bondholders have secured a good deal in the circumstances, since otherwise their debts would not have been met.I am still bamboozled by his 80 pence valuations, since which he reminds us 'nothing has changed' Perhaps he was reading a enticing novel whilst the rest of us witnessed BGY succumb to unsustainable levels of debt, inefficient plants, and a share price in single digits. As you say Jdob, not much has changed! i refer to a comment he included in his post as set out below,

''nothing changed there then....just a few numbers on a balance sheet have altered.....the former has not changed...the later is in the process of being changed......1.7p a share....I`ll talk to you later on in the year''.

I ought to remind this potato peeler or some such that the balance sheet governs to a huge extent the share price of a company since it contains fundamental details relating to the financial health or otherwsie of the company concerned. I suggest to him that what ought to be in the process of change is his isolated brain cell but i am not qualified to undertake such a difficult task. To echo his words, perhaps i will speak to him later but for now i have no intention of visiting him at the funny farm.

But the real source of amusement emanated from BGY itself. Resorting to motivational gurus is a transparent sign that the company is clutching at straws. It is akin to a football club struggling with its finanaces and being dealt a further blow by its players not having a care in the land as to whether it succeeds in subsequent games or not. Motivational gurus cannot alter the terms of nor expedite the debt for equity swap, and in my considered view their influence and impact on a restrucutured BGY is not worth the money wasted on them.

Perhaps i can draw the attention of BGY bulls to the real state of play in so far as the share price is concerned (i know i have regurgitated this umpteen times before, but my generosity to the bulls is substantial). The company is undergoing a restructuring, under the terms of which shareholders will retain 2.5% of a restructured company that will, according to my robust calculations (derived from the financial statements issued by the company)will be worth around 400 million. 2.5% of that equates to a market capitalisation of around 10 million against a current cap around 25 million. The share price will at some stage address this anamoly.

As Techanalyst indicates, i have called it right thus far. I thank him for his generous remarks, which are well recieved.I rarely post on advfn boards, since i am modest in character. However, i have thoroughly enjoyed contributing to this board, and statements like those of Tech make it worthwhile.Those who have come across my posts elsewhere will confirm that my calls have been nothing short of impeccable.

It will only be a matter of time however, when this board will cease to exist, and when the bulls looking rather sheepish will be lost without a trace. We have already lost the likes of CMJ and Magreeba who no doubt cut their losses and bolted for the exit. I have disagreed with many on this board, and after all it is a difference of opinion that makes a market. However, BGY in my view is a special situation where the eventual price is more readily quantifiable. However, it is probable (though highly unlikely) that the price can move upwards as well as down but he odds are heavily stacked against it. In the end i am stone cold certain that the price will be between 1.5 and 2p.If there is any rise above 5p, then iwill be jumping with joy since this will grant me an opportunity to extend my short.

Since my previous post, readers may have noted that my forecast of a rise in the XAU has been spot on over the past week or so. The canadian listed and those on the OTC have been flying. If Blue Peter badges were issued for good calls, i would regularly be saying '' now heres one i recieved earlier......''

cheers