Hi Mike,
There is something that grates about US-based commentary. I often hear these guys explain a forthcoming dollar crisis, in terms of citizens of other countries having a greater appreciation of commodities and precious metals than US citizens.
I wonder whether the cultural difference actually exists? For example, would an investor in the US put more value on intellectual property, a trademark, or have an unshakeable faith in the US dollar?
Also, would an investor in Asia see a low US$ and take advantage of it by using it to purchase US equities, and be happy to ignore the US deficits knowing that the US is still the mightiest superpower?
As the dollar falls, oil and commodity inflation relative to the dollar would start showing up on the balance sheets of the major US companies. This would be not so bad for the global co's, but pretty dire for SME's. Does anyone know how the US GDP is split by export sales vs local sales?
Cheers,
Pete