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deanroberthunt - Tue, 20 Dec 05 :

look guys and gals can we start bringing some LUV onto this thread! lol.

lets just state facts:

JakNife:
Your figures do stack up if you use the 960m shares vs current balance sheet. However, in this scenario you aren't comparing apples with apples. The share dilution would assume that all the current loan notes are converted now or in the next few months, which is highly unlikely to nil. If you want to project the 960m shares in issue to sometime in the future (say 2007), you would then need to extrapolate the current revenue/profits into the future also, so you then have a true future value (apples and apples). Your sums use a future share dilution with current revenue/profits.

With the current shares in issue and the balance sheet as it stands today the sp is fair value @ circa 1p.

Essentially this company is a start-up, and as such you can't apply the same rules as established companies wrt fundamentals etc..

I will agree, however, that if the sales/profits stagnate and Sim4travel is not a success and the loan notes continue to be converted, then yes indeed the comapny will be well overvalued. This is why as a pi one needs to monitor the situation carefully and regularly. We have an rns on the 16th announcing more loan note conversions, 2m i think, and if i could buy shares at 0.1p when the market price is 1p, i fecking would. so its unrealistic to believe they won't be converted, its the timescale thats the unknown. if they start to dilute at a faster rate than the profits then I'll jump ship, have no doubt.

However, I believe Joe Case wants to make a go of this company and I'm prepared to give him the benfit of the doubt for the time being.

Rgs,
Dean


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