The New Murphy's Law: What can go right will go right

DAY 33: GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RECORD PACE AND SOME MORE DIY!
Thursday, 30 December 2004 at 09:27


Positions 0300 GMT
Image © Voyager 2020


Aft Cam
Image © OC/Ellen MacArthur


Ellen on deck 19.12.04
Image © OC/Ellen MacArthur
KEY DATA DAY 32 0810 GMT: 2 days 3 hours 45 minutes ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur

Lat/Long: 52 15 S / 141 E (560 miles SSW Tasmania / 1050 miles W New Zealand)
Average Boat speed: 20.01 knots (heading E by S)
True Wind speed: 25.3 knots (direction NW by N)
Sea temperature: 7.3 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 13,273 miles at an average speed of 17.3 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)


Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check home page for the latest data updated hourly


IN BRIEF:

* FAST CONDITIONS FOR LAST 12 HOURS in NNW to NW 24-32 knot breeze: "Good run, averaging over 20 knots at 110 degrees, we're smokin'...! Put staysail down and swapped to Solent to go deeper and further south. We're 28 knots right now, nice, and earlier did 32.29 knots not bad with a wind speed of 28 knots, almost a record! I think 36 knots is the fastest so far on B&Q." These fast speeds have resulted in Ellen breaking the two-day barrier in her lead over Joyon's record for the first time in her solo record attempt. As Ellen approaches the midway barrier, another 500 miles further along the race track [see Jargon Buster below explaining how the halfway point is measured], her mindset remains pragmatic, as the fact remains that only one man in history has raced solo, non-stop around the world on a multihull: "It's a long, long way home, it's not over until its over and Francis' time is the only record time."

* MORE DIY ON BOARD B&Q... Keeping the 75-foot multihull in order is an ongoing daily task with a job list that keeps getting longer as B&Q undergoes more wear and tear in the harsh Southern Ocean conditions: "When I put the Solent up earlier, I looked at halyard only two strands left, lucky we were downwind. If it had parted the halyard would have ended up in the mast, I felt very lucky to have spotted it. So I have re-spliced it and spent two hours doing it. It had broken just like gennaker halyard on the Vendée [4 years ago], right on the end of the splice sitting on the sheave at top of mast. Lucky it didn't come down, only two strands of the kevlar halyard were left, that's only one-tenthth of diameter. You earn your luck a bit, but that was lucky!" Then there's more to come as Ellen considers a rig check, if conditions allow, before entering the second leg of the Southern Ocean - the Pacific Ocean: "I've redone the lashing tack of the Solent, and I've switched the runner cover over. I've got some water in the back beam. Going to wait until gennaker [Solent] out of the way though, its too hard at the moment. I've got a few other things to do. Might do a rig check as we get closer to New Zealand and check the lashings at the top of the mast. Be good to do before entering next part of the south..." Keeping a handle on all the jobs that need to be done is an important psychological achievement: "I feel on top of things, even in the bad stuff, I kept checking, kept problem solving, never putting things off until later. I think I'm better at that now than I ever have been. I have made an improvement on myself!"

* FLATTER SEA CONDITIONS EASE THE GENERATOR AGONY... "Have just done my first charge without having to restart the generator, it was so refreshing!" Previously due to the violent motion, Ellen has had to manually restart it every few minutes, making it impossible to rest for the hours of charging necessary to keep the batteries going, and hence the auto-pilots and everything else. The sea state may be flatter but the depth has decreased sharply as B&Q passes over an 'ocean mountain': "We're just going over a seamount, 1600 metres of depth from 3200 metres. I find all that stuff fascinating... We know so little about the ocean floor..."

* OUR NIGHT, ELLEN'S DAY... If you are thinking how amazing it is for Ellen to be doing all this DIY during darkness, remember she is in the Southern Hemisphere. So night time in Europe, is day time for Ellen. The sun rises around 1800 GMT and sets at 1100 GMT providing 17 hours of daylight...

* B&Q PROGREESING QUICKLY EASTWARDS BUT DIVE TO THE SOUTH ON THE AGENDA as a wall of high pressure [no wind] stretches across Ellen's path from south-east Tasmania down to 50-51 degrees south and 160-165 degrees east. Commanders' are advising Ellen to head south of the light wind zone but then come back up to pass north of Campbell Island sometime on Sunday. This will increase the north-south divide between IDEC and B&Q, currently 600 miles, but not to B&Q's advantage as Ellen will be sailing more miles to get south around the light winds but then back north-east to avoid the ice. The objective is to keep B&Q away from the ice area to the ESE of Campbell Island which is situated 350 miles south of mainland New Zealand. This is also the same path taken by Joyon once he had cleared the south-east cape of Tasmania...

* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: Nick Moloney on Skandia, crosses the International Date Line from east to west in 7th place in the Vendee Globe, surfing away from New Zealand and onwards towards Cape Horn. Nick Moloney


WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:

From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Thursday, December 30, 2004

Ellen continues between high pressure just SE of Tasmania and low pressure well off the W and SW. This pattern is producing a potent NNW to NW flow, generally between 24-32 kts. This will keep her moving along very steadily towards the ESE. Expect this pattern to hold until 09-12utc Friday with the wind then starting to diminish. This should allow continued good boat speed for the next 24-30 hours.

By 12utc Friday, high pressure will have nosed down towards 50-51s/160-165e and will stay in that area thru 12utc Saturday. Winds will decrease and tend to back after 12utc Friday. Goal will be to come along the bottom side of the high where we can maintain some breeze. Winds will become light on Saturday, but the very light conditions likely nearer the high, around and north of 51s. We will want to come NE some around this time and probably aim to pass north of Campbell Island sometime after 00-06utc Sunday. This will be a safer course to try and avoid the ice area to the ESE of Campbell Island.

Strategy:
1) Continue what you are doing - ESE course
2) Waypoint around 53-53 30s/155e
3) A more NE hdg around and after 03-06utc Sat passing N of Campbell Island
4) Mainly E heading once past Campbell Island

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Thurs, Dec 30
09: 330-350/24-32
12: 330-350/25-32, near 52 20s/143 30e - wind may come up a few kts 10-14utc
18: 325-345/24-30
Considerable clouds. A few isolated showers
Seas 15-20 ft

Fri, Dec 31
00: 320-340/24-30
06: 320-340/24-30
12: 320-340/20-25, near 53 20s/155e - winds diminish
Cloudy to partly cloudy. Seas 13-18 ft and diminishing.




JARGON BUSTER: MIDWAY POINT
MacArthur could be at the halfway stage of her attempt in another 24-30 hours based on the theoretical distance of 23,965 miles that her shore team are using to measure her progress. When the data shows 11,982 miles to go, that is the midway point for B&Q. The course distance is based on what is considered to be the shortest possible practical route around the world - of course, one will always sail more distance through the water than that, since one can rarely take a direct route - due to the weather. On the Data Panel online, MILES SAILED reflects the actual distance sailed through the water (currently 12,936 nautical miles). MILES LEFT is the miles left to sail based on the shortest practical route from current position to the finish, the reality being that B&Q will sail more miles than suggested in this calculation. So far B&Q has sailed 12,936 miles through the water [at an average speed of 17.2 knots], with 12,791 miles left to go (and 11,174 miles covered of theoretical shortest route) on a typical optimum ie shortest course around the world.


PARTNER OF THE DAY : OMEGA
Official timekeeper of Ellen MacArthur