The New Murphy's Law: What can go right will go right

DAY 32: STORM ABATES AS ELLEN TRIES TO HEAD EAST AGAIN...
Wednesday, 29 December 2004 at 09:52


Positions 0810 GMT
Image © Voyager 2020


Mast Cam
Image © OC/Ellen MacArthur


Positions 0810 GMT
Image © Voyager 2020
KEY DATA DAY 31 0710 GMT: 1 day 19 hours ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur

Lat/Long: 50 24 S / 128 58 E (830 miles WSW Tasmania / 1550 miles W NZ)
Average Boat speed: 16.71 knots (heading E)
True Wind speed: 28.7 knots (direction NNW)
Sea temperature: 7.9 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 12,785 miles at an average speed of 17.2 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)


Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check the home page for the latest data updated hourly


IN BRIEF:

* A NIGHT OF 35-45 KNOTS OF WIND, GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS (60mph/100km/h) AT TIMES. The storm that hit B&Q last night (mostly the day for Ellen) is starting to abate but it was a stressful and exhausting time for Ellen as she fought to keep the boat going and limiting damage: "Had gusts over 45 knots, and the sea is pretty damn bad - waves breaking all over the place..." To find out what Ellen does during a storm like this, see the email below sent back by Ellen at 0330 GMT today...

* B&Q HOLDS ON TO ADVANTAGE and increases lead to 43 hours this morning. Ellen was forced to sail a more southerly course during the night [now at 50 degrees south] to get away from the dangerous northerly swell slamming side-on but as the wind shifts more to the north-west this morning, Ellen will progress back on to a more easterly course. It is not safe to go too far south because of the risk of ice which will soon became a major concern for Ellen south-east of New Zealand in particular - the sea temperature has already dropped to 7.9 degrees from over 10 degrees yesterday when B&Q was at 47 degrees south.

* B&Q 830 MILES DUE SOUTH-WEST OF TASMANIA having now covered 12,785 miles at an average speed of 17.2 knots and is getting close to the halfway stage now. The NW breeze is expected to stabilise for the next 48 hours in the 22-32 knot region providing fast sailing conditions to the east, although Ellen must find a passage in between the iceberg fields and the lighter winds to the north - a delicate routing problem. By New Year's Eve a ridge of high pressure stretching from south-east Australia down to 50 degrees south / 160-163 degrees east will cause lighter winds as Ellen goes under New Zealand. Current plan from Commanders is to suggest Ellen goes between the Auckland Islands and Campbell Island, as did Joyon during his solo circumnavigation - Ellen not sure for now!

* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: Nick Moloney on the Open 60 Skandia, 7th place in the Vendee Globe, has just passed New Zealand and into the Pacific Ocean - next landmark Cape Horn, 3700 miles away. Nick Moloney




ELLEN EMAIL - 0330 GMT 29.12.04 [managing to type in rough conditions is pretty amazing - to see the unedited version with all the typos on the home page - and you will realise that it isn't that easy after all!]

Sitting here at the chart table soaked again... Already changed clothes twice in the past 10 hours - thank goodness for Arry the air cooled generator (as i type this he's stopped for the third time in 20 mins -back in a mo)... It's been another very hard slog... yesterday winds much lighter than predicted - so more sail changes, and the stress of hoping that when you pull the reef out you won't be putting it in just an hour later. Yesterday evening it became evident that there was a storm brewing to the west that weas going to hit us hard again - and as the hours ticked by it appeared worse than the xmas storm.... it was right...we're in it - had gusts over 45 knots, and the sea is pretty damn bad. waves breaking all over the place - and the 15m2 storm jib looks gigantic. It's been a non stop night, afternoon and morning. though looking at the clock it's now lunch time local! Just after dark i put up the storm jib, and spent half an hour adjusting the 3rd reef. both done, bearing away to avoid the risk of full on hits with the waves - though there's always the odd one which catches us out.. i got a full frontal [wave] which completely winded me whilst i was rearranging the gennaker in it's bag - and now the protective nettings gone, there's a lot more cold spray to hit the face... Storm jib went up without too many probs - then it was down below to tackle the now three hour charge trying to keep other batteries up.. genny stopped again - hold on ok on.. i guess if my stomachs in my mouth each time we fall off a wave then i can't begin to think what's happening to the fuel and oil in there.. just one more washing machine cycle... i got the batteries up to about 70 percent which under the circumstances was not bad i thought - then set about checking on deck again.. unfortunately the main had filled with a pocket of water - so next stage was another bear away and a 40 minute fight to pump the water out with the bilge pump. i could harldly stand up on deck let alone hold the pump down and work the handle.. it took about 20 goes but on my last one it worked, and i managed to get the sail back on the boom - no longer loaded down with 100 kilos of water trying to rip it apart. on coming below i managed to get an hour or so on the floor after changing clothes again... at least i slept - then woke feeling hungry - but this time chose to ignore it - and laid my head back on the damp fleece to snooze again. On awakening there was another 2 hours list of tasks, i bailed out the area beneath the pilot arms - but couldn't work out where the water was coming from.. finally i discover its from the old main engine bay - and there's about half a ton in there coming down the old exhaust which needs to stay open as the air for the generator cooling comes from there. so - i pumped till it was gone - about half an hour - then final part under the floor again.. (generator stopped again, and a wave just thudded on top of the coachhouse) back again!.. so i'm here now having stuffed as much ceraeal in as i can... drank my sports drink dry - and will now spend the next three hours tending to the generator... engineer back on duty! I'm really exhausted, but drying out the boat, and creating that list of jobs for after makes me feel a bit better... later on then.
ex



WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:

From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Wednesday, December 29, 2004

The strong N winds will be slowly coming down today. Big high swell to the NE and low pressure off the SW produced the strong flow and the worst of it has now passed. It will still be windy today, but better than yesterday, mainly 28-35 kts. Wind will back a little and be more NNW to NW. This will allow a more E heading as opposed to SE.

The NW wind then continues Thurs and Friday, speeds more on the order of 22-32 kts, though. Again, plan will be to come mainly E. This should still maintain good wind speed and a good wind angle which should allow a fast boat speed. Seas should ease a little as well and that should help make conditions a bit better over the next couple of days. Will likely come more NE for a time Friday as breeze drops off and backs more appreciably.

Pattern shows a ridge of high pressure from off the SE part of Australia extending SSE towards 50s/160-163e by 00utc Sat. This will make for lighter winds, lightest occurring near and north of 50s. Beyond this time, wind will back and become WSW and then SW. Course will then be ESE to E, probably passing between Auckland and Campbell Island.

Strategy:
1) still think it is important to limit the southing as much as you can
2) want to be close to 50s by 6utc Sat as flow after will back and will force you more SE and ESE
3) Have you passing between the Auckland Island and Campbell Island then
mainly an E course -staying near or north of 51 30s thru 175w

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Wed, Dec 29- winds back
08: 335-355/28-35
12: 330-350/27-33, near 50 35s/131 15e - winds slowly diminish
18: 325-345/22-32 - wind stronger to the E - wind may be more variable in speed
Cloudy with scattered showers and a couple squalls - less activity after 09utc
Seas 18-25 feet with peak waves 30+ feet possible - seas from N-NW - seas easing slowly after 9-12utc Wed especially to the north

Thurs, Dec 30
00: 325-345/24-32
06: 325-350/22-32
12: 325-345/22-32, near 50 50s/143e
Considerable clouds. A few isolated showers
Seas 15-20 ft



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