The New Murphy's Law: What can go right will go right

DAY 31: NEW SOLO TIME TO CAPE LEEUWIN...
Tuesday, 28 December 2004 at 09:29


Positions 0752 GMT
Image © Voyager 2020


Ellen Helming on B&Q/Castorama
Image © Jacques Vapillon / DPPI


Positions 0752 GMT
Image © Voyager 2020
KEY DATA DAY 30 0710 GMT: 1 day 14 hours 15 minutes ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur

Lat/Long: 47 16 S / 118 50 E (790 miles SSE Cape Leeuwin / 1185 miles W Tasmania)
Average Boat speed: 19.38 knots (heading ESE)
True Wind speed: 25.1 knots (direction NNE)
Sea temperature: 10.3 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 12,334 miles at an average speed of 17.2 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)


Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check home page for the latest data updated hourly


IN BRIEF:

* ELLEN MACARTHUR SETS NEW SOLO TIME TO CAPE LEEUWIN... B&Q crossed the longitude of Cape Leeuwin at 22:15:45 GMT last night to set a new solo time of 29 days, 14 hours and 5 minutes taking 17 hours and 24 minutes off Joyon's existing time of 30 days, 7 hours and 29 minutes. This is Ellen's third new solo time of her record attempt, having set new solo times to the Equator and the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa. Cape Leeuwin is on the south-western-most point of Australia on the longitude of 115 08 degrees East. Interestingly in comparison, Steve Fossett and his crew on board the 125-ft catamaran 'Cheyenne' took 25 days, 14 hours and 8 minutes from Ushant to Cape Leeuwin and 9 days, 20 hours and 29 minutes to cover the distance between Cape of Good Hope and Cape Leeuwin. This same passage has taken Ellen, on the 75-foot multihull B&Q, 10 days and 4 hours - only 7.5 hours longer.
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur

* ANOTHER FAST NIGHT as Ellen continues to make ground on the record pace, now over 34 hours ahead of Joyon's time. Consistent 25-30 knot northerly winds had B&Q averaging around 18 knots of boat speed through the night. The 24-hour runs are consistently around the 450 mile mark, 30-odd miles short of the current best of 481.6 miles that Ellen clocked up on 15th December as she raced towards South Africa. Although finding the balance between Commanders' weather predictions and her own 'local' knowledge is still a learning process for Ellen: "Commanders were adamant the breeze was going to build and that went on for five hours so in the end I called them and said I was going to take reef out as we had been sitting here for 5 hours going 2 knots slower than we could have been..." See rest of Ellen comment below...

* B&Q FAST APPROACHING THE HALFWAY MARK having covered 12,334 miles at an average speed of 17.2 knots and is just over 1000 miles away from the halfway mark of a typical round the world course. The halfway point will bring B&Q under Tasmania that is 1185 miles to her east and with the current forecast, Ellen should be passing under Tasmania on Thursday night and into Friday. Ellen's big gains on Joyon are down to the fact that Joyon was unable to get south to the shorter course because of intense low pressure systems pinning him to the north - in the same way B&Q was forced to take a more north-easterly course on Christmas Eve, when her advance on the record slipped to less than 2 hours. At one stage, Joyon was struggling to get under Tasmania but finally got the break he needed to get south. B&Q is currently 460 miles south of Joyon's track although the latest weather routing suggests their tracks are set to converge again south of New Zealand.

* FAST CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS... Commanders' Weather expect the northerly breeze to carry on between 30-40 knots bringing rough sea conditions for another 24 hours. The stronger winds may shift a little more to the right, going north to north-east at times, and Ellen will have to head on a more south-easterly course. But as the low shifts further south, the winds will go back into the north and north-west tomorrow and Thursday, that will allow B&Q to head east once again, staying in favourable conditions until Friday. A ridge of high pressure may slow up B&Q on New Year's Day...

* NEGOTIATING THE ICE ZONE that is hundreds of miles across sitting to the south-east of New Zealand is the next big dilemma for Ellen, especially as she is reluctant to stay close to New Zealand where there is a big light patch of no wind: "Commanders' are adamant not to go south and in amongst the bergs and I agree, I don't think its the right thing to do. But looking at the file, there's a really big light patch sitting right over the gap between New Zealand and the islands further south..." See rest of Ellen's comment below about the other possible option to make this passage further south but gybing back to north to try and keep clear of the icebergs...

* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: day 52 for Nick Moloney on Skandia, 7th place in the Vendee Globe, south of New Zealand approaching the 'ice zone' where numerous icebergs have been reported. Nick Moloney


New solo times for Ellen MacArthur, B&Q trimaran:
Ushant-Equator 8d 18h 20m (7.12.04 0230GMT)
Ushant-Cape of Good Hope 19d 9h 46m (17.12.04 1756 GMT)
Ushant-Cape Leeuwin 29d 14h 5m (27.12.04 2215GMT)


FROM ELLEN EARLY THIS MORNING:

The breeze went up to 36 knots and I put the 3rd reef in and I spoke to Commanders and they said the breeze was going to increase up to 35 knots really soon but then the breeze died to 25 knots and we were under-canvassed for a couple of hours. But Commanders were adamant the breeze was going to build and that went on for five hours so in the end I called them and said I was going to take reef out as we had been sitting here for 5 hours going 2 knots slower than we could have been. So 3 hours ago I pulled out the third reef and we've still got 25 knots of breeze! I should sometimes go with my gut reaction as well...it's all part of learning. But often they are right so it's hard. I just felt the wind wasn't going to increase we were in a clear bit of blue sky, the clouds had gone, the sea temperature had gone up a bit that all pointed to the fact that we were going to have less breeze even though the model was saying 35 knots. We had blue skies for a few hours but its gone grey again now which is the first indication that the breeze might increase now.

The worrying thing is looking at going under New Zealand it looks pretty bad, to be honest, there's a big light patch. Commanders' are adamant not to go south and in amongst the bergs and I agree, I don't think its the right thing to do. But looking at the file, there's a really big light patch sitting right over the gap between New Zealand and the islands further south - and its really light, we're talking 5 knots of breeze. There seems to be another option in the weather files which is to go more south now and then to go gybe and come back up north to go to the east of Campbell Island but west of the icebergs, so squeeze between the two, that's another option for sure.

JARGON BUSTER: How can Ellen have passed Cape Leeuwin 17 hours ahead of Joyon's record, yet be a day and a half ahead of the record overall? This is because the intermediate record is measured to the longitude of Cape Leeuwin, regardless of how north or south you are on that north-south line, but the distance to finish for the overall record is measured via a series of waypoint around Antarctica, which are further to the south of both Ellen and Francis track. Ellen being much further south, and therefore closer to the finish, means she is further ahead than the easterly longitude advantage she has on him at present.

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:

Ellen will be getting into rougher conditions again over the next couple hours and should experience N winds at 30-40 knots over the next 24 hrs or so. With the stronger winds and possible shifting a little more right into the N-NE at times, she may have to head more E-SE or SE in the next 24 hrs.

As this next low shifts further south, winds will turn left into the N-NW and NW during Wed and Thu, which should allow her to take a course more east. Diminishing winds will also help her turn more east.

She should remain in favorable conditions into Fri, but may become light on
New Year's day, as ridge of high pressure tries to move overhead.

Strategy - no change
1) continue the ESE course for the most part - try avoiding getting too far south as much as possible - with strengthening wind and being a fair amount right, understand that you have may have to edge more SE at times
2) waypoint of 47 30-48s/135e still looks good

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Tue, Dec 28
09: 355-015/25-32
12: 355-015/30-40, near 47 15S/121 30E
18: 345-010/30-40
Lots of clouds with more numerous showers and a couple squalls. Some gusts into the low 40s ahead of any squalls. Seas building to 15-20 feet, from NNW

Wed, Dec 29
00: 340-360/30-40
06: 330-350/30-40
12: 330-350/25-35, near 48S/132 30E
18: 330-350/24-32
Mostly cloudy with more showers and squalls- gusts to 40 kts near showers.
Seas 15-22 feet, from N-NW.


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