The New Murphy's Law: What can go right will go right

DAY 30: B&Q BUILDS BIGGEST ADVANTAGE SINCE THE START...
Monday, 27 December 2004 at 09:42


Position 27.12.2004
Image © Voyager 2020


English Caption
Image © No Credit Given


Position 27.12.04
Image © Voyager 2020
KEY DATA DAY 29 0710 GMT: 1 day 6 hours 21 minutes ahead of Joyon
OMEGA: Official timekeeper for Ellen MacArthur

Lat/Long: 45 10 S / 108 02 E (715 miles SSW Cape Leeuwin, south-west tip of Australia)
Average Boat speed: 17.81 knots (heading ESE)
True Wind speed: 27.4 knots (direction NW)
Sea temperature: 11.0 degrees C
Distance sailed so far: 11,881 miles at an average speed of 17.1 knots
(data communicated by Thrane MiniC via BT Business Broadband)


Update based on data recorded 0710 GMT...check home page for the latest data updated hourly


IN BRIEF:

* B&Q BUILDS BIGGEST ADVANTAGE OF RECORD ATTEMPT SO FAR... Sailing at 20 knots through the night in an easterly direction along the direct course, Ellen has built up her best advantage so far in the entire record attempt - B&Q is now 1 day, 6 hours and 21 minutes ahead of the record at 0710 GMT this morning. It is a testament to Ellen's tenacity that through the gale-force conditions since Christmas Eve, she has tirelessly pushed the 75-trimaran through horrendous sea conditions, never letting up, to get the maximum speed out of B&Q that the conditions would allow...

* CHRISTMAS STILL ON HOLD FOR MACARTHUR... There was hardly any mention, and certainly no opportunity, to celebrate Christmas on board B&Q as 35-40 knot north-westerly winds swept through on Christmas Eve and through Christmas Day. The sea state was very rough and any chances of digging out her Christmas Box stored down below could not have been further from Ellen's mind. Her focus was purely on self-preservation to get B&Q and herself through the Force 8 gale, gusting 50 knots... On Christmas Day night, the brunt of the storm had passed over B&Q and the wind decreased to around 20-25 knots. But this only added more pressure to Ellen to keep B&Q moving as fast as she could to the east - 12 sail changes in the night, moving up a gear every time, until the wind started to increase again as Ellen sailed back into the same storm which had stalled ahead of her... Another series of sail changes reducing sail as the winds climbed back up to 30-35 knots with gusts of 40+ knots. There is an explanation as to why they call this the 'Roaring Forties'!

* SEE LIFE ON BOARD VIA THE WEBCAM... Click on the webcam icon to have a glimpse of life on board for Ellen... Permanently living in her oilskins, ever-ready to get out on deck; finding time to boil the kettle to make up a freeze-dried meal, forcing herself to eat when her heart is in her mouth most of the time; crawling into her bunk [still in her oilskins] to grab a few minutes of sleep as she verges on the edge of exhaustion...

* APPROACHING CAPE LEEUWIN ON THE SW TIP OF AUSTRALIA... B&Q is 715 miles SSW of Cape Leeuwin [the south-western-most point of Australia] leaving the Kerguelen Islands that she passed just 4 days ago in her wake. Francis Joyon crossed the longitude of Cape Leeuwin at just 39 degrees south, as intense Southern Ocean storms were still preventing him from diving south to the shortest route. B&Q is approximately 370 miles to the south of his track today and this trend will continue for the next few days until converging again south of New Zealand. Joyon set a record solo time of 30 days, 7 hours and 29 minutes to Cape Leeuwin and Ellen will need to cross the Cape Leeuwin longitude, approximately 275 miles further east of her, by 15:39 GMT tomorrow [28th December]. At her current speed [last 24 hour run at 0710 GMT was 473 miles, only 8 miles under her best 24-hour run so far of 481 miles] and all going well, Ellen will hopefully be passing under Cape Leeuwin by late tonight.

* B&Q PUSHING EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT but may get forced to sail a more southerly course as the winds turn more right into the north over the next 12-24 hours - Ellen needs to avoid going to far south and risk being on the wrong side of the next potential storm coming this weekend. Winds mainly 30-35 knots from the north-west with some squally conditions to keep Ellen vigilant.

* B&Q UNAFFECTED BY TSUNAMI CAUSED BY THE EARTHQUAKE... Ellen was devastated when she was told the news about the disaster in Asia but for the hundreds of people have contacted Mission Control, concerned about its effect on her, please be assured that in the open ocean the Tsunami wave is barely noticeable. It is more like a giant high tide that only becomes a devastating wave when it hits shallow water. The thoughts of Ellen and the whole team go out to those that have suffered in this terrible catastrophe.

* ELLEN'S OC SAILING TEAM MATE UPDATE: day 51 for Nick Moloney on Skandia, 7th place in the Vendee Globe, making good gains ahead of a depression pulling away from Marc Thiercelin on Proform - New Zealand 300 miles down the track. Nick Moloney



WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:


From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Monday, December 27, 2004

The front is still close to her and she may have some squally conditions over the next 6-12 hrs as a weak low dives SE, but Ellen is making great progress toward the east. Winds are mainly N-NW at 30-35 knots, which is allowing her sail a little south of east, but the breeze is expected turn more right into the north over the next 12-24 hrs.

She will have to sail with as much east as possible, but the northerly winds may force her a little more to the south later today into Wednesday. Though by later Wed or Thu, winds should diminish some and turn more left into the NW, which make it easier for her to get more easting. Overall, Ellen does not want to get too far south, as she may then get on the wrong side of the next potential storm system next weekend.

Strategy
1) Continue what you are doing, current course near 100-110 looks good.
2) Northerly breeze may force you more to the south over the next 36 hrs, but don't want to get too much south
a) any northing you can will be an advantage for later in the week

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Mon, Dec 27
09: 330-360/25-35, squalls to 40??
12: 340-010/25-35, near 45 10S/110 E
18: 330-360/22-32
Considerable clouds with passing showers/squalls.
Seas 15-20 feet

Tue, Dec 28
00: 340-010/24-32
06: 340-010/26-34
12: 340-010/25-35, near 46 10S/120E
18: 340-010/25-35
Lots of clouds and a scattering of showers/maybe an isolated squall. Be prepared for gusts into the low 40s ahead of any squalls
Seas 15-20 feet, from NW



PARTNER OF THE DAY : UKSA
The Official Watersports Training Facility for Ellen and the Offshore Challenges Sailing Team