The 10-13 Week Cycle

Carl Swenlin's 2003 Prediction

Posted By: BearSmith // Date: 1/1/2003 at 23:55:31

is very bearish, and I agree with him 100%



Looks like he's thinking March 03 low with get this, SnP = about 600, then a spike back up to about 770-780 in about 4 1/2 months from the March low, and then a decent to about SnP 450 in Nov/Dec. 03.

The March low would be precisely 9 months from the July low, which really was the spike down event of 02, and the Nov/Dec 03 low would then be about 9 months from the March low.

This all makes sense to me and I have been seeing the 9 month lows repeat with regularity in this bear.

This also agrees with the Bradley 2003 model, which places turning points around 1/10 (upcoming), 3/13 (March low), 7/2 (bear rally high I presume), and then other turn dates of 9/14, 10/21, 11/22. Looking at the curve, the key turn dates for critical lows would appear to be 3/13 and 11/22. This agrees 100% with Swenlin's 9 month cycle analysis.

The above also agrees with polar pacific's prediction of about 629 on the SnP shortly.

The 3 major trades in 03 i'm planning as a short and hold bear are as follows: 1) Max short position w/PUTs through end of March and I'll finalize my purchases by mid next week, 2) Calls on the long side near the March low, and then 3) Max short with PUTs to ride the 7/2 bear rally top down through 11/22. Of course I will also look at other factors before taking on huge positions and with a successful trade this quarter, will diversify into some gold & silver and of March.

Good luck to all WS Bears.

BearSmith